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Jose Mourinho to Real Madrid anyone?

Thursday, 26 November 2009

WANTED: Sports fans apply here!

I am looking for football fans across the world who know there stuff!  I want to expand this blog and offer advice and tips on other leagues, currently most of my tips are on English football as that’s my area but im looking for people with extensive knowledge of other European leagues. Not just the main leagues in Spain, Italy, France and Germany but even places like Romania, Bulgaria, Norway etc It can even be for Tennis, Cricket or Golf - whatever your niche is.

Initially I would like to have a guest blogger to write some pieces for me and offer some advice on their area of expertise, i.e. not many bookmakers would know that a Romanian team has half of its first team out with illness therefore offering a excellent value on the opposing team.

The aim is to build a network of contacts and share this type of information via a forum or chatroom on this blog.

If you feel you can add something to this or have a suggestion please leave a comment and I will get back to you.

Oh and just a quick mention to Fulham last night who made it a successful maximum bet for me last night, hope some others were on at a great price!! :)

Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Big Sam missing...

Well Liverpool have finally done what they have been threatening for weeks now, crash out of the Champions League. Which im not that upset about as we are not realistic winners this season, the only worry I have about it all is the cash that Liverpool will now miss out on and the fact that most league games will be played on Sunday due to Europe League commitments on a Thursday. Which is a blow to be honest, no one likes playing catch up in the league especially when you are low on confidence. The plus side is that Liverpool could play Sparta Prague in the next round and I can get tickets, hurray!

I have been looking at tonight’s games have picked out a couple of decent bets, first off is the Premier League game between Fulham and Blackburn. Fulham are a standout 2.10 with most firms and this will be a maximum LUMP ON bet for me, I cannot understand why Fulham’s price is so big - it maybe that Blackburns form has picked up of late but a win at Bolton doesn’t excite me. Also Big Sam will be missing from the Blackburn dugout tonight as he recovers from heart surgery. Fulham are strong at home with the only defeats coming against Arsenal and Chelsea and should have enough to beat Blackburn and odds against is a great price.

The second of my two bets brings me to the Champions League and the early kick off in Russia, I fancy this game to be a draw. Fatigue might be setting for CSKA Moscow who are nearing the end of their domestic season, Wolfsburg will be tough opposition for the CSKA Moscow and I can see both sides cancelling each other out. Wolfsburg only need a point to guarantee qualification and im sure they will pick up that point tonight. Odds of 3.40 are decent for the draw and can be backed at Skybet.

Good Luck to all.

Monday, 23 November 2009

Simply The Best!

Well, after looking at the weekend’s games I decided not to have a bet. After losing 4 in a row I felt it would be beneficial if I had a short break and regained some focus rather than chasing my losses. I actually had a few potential bets lined up (Liverpool/Man City both to score) I also fancied Leicester, Millwall, Rotherham and Notts County all to win this weekend. So there would have been 3 winning bets out of 5 (after timing at its best!) but I would have narrowed it down to just one or two selections so im not too bothered as the way things are going I would have backed Notts County and Millwall!

I spent most of yesterday watching old Chris Eubank fights on youtube, what a legend this guy was and the fight between him and Watson was awesome apart from the 11th round which almost proved fatal for Michael Watson. The contract signing between Benn and Eubank was also very amusing, it took place on Midweek Sports Extra I think? Barry Hearn, Benn and Eubank were all on the show and signed contracts live on air – you have gotta love the 90’s!

Anyway this week sees the return of the Champions League and a crucial game for my team Liverpool in Hungary, I will take a closer look at this weeks games and hope for a change in fortunes.

Good Luck All.

Thursday, 19 November 2009

Down on my luck

That’s four consecutive losers for me now, Rochdale, Ireland (draw), Ukraine and overs in Portugal/Bosnia and it’s the worst run I have been on this season. I think its gonna take some mental toughness to pick things up again and start seeing some winners. I am still in profit this season but that is down to a Louis Saha first goal at odds of 7.50, which makes me wonder how much longer I will be in profit for. Lets look at last nights games, Ukraine had several chances to take the lead against Greece and a wonder goal has done them – very frustrating! Overall Ukraine were the much better team but credit to Greece as they did defend resolutely and held on to make the World Cup Finals.

Ireland were robbed by a Thierry Henry handball, very, very harsh on Ireland but im still smarting over the Anelka goal in the first leg!! Portugal Vs Bosnia didn’t plan out how I expected, really thought goals were on the cards last night – Bosnia’s usual Gung Ho approach wasn’t shown over the two legs, perhaps with hindsight I should have anticipated a tighter game with so much at stake instead of jumping in over 2.5 goals!! It will be a welcome relief when the league fixtures return this weekend, the cup games and internationals have ruined my stride so to speak!

Good Luck All

Wednesday, 18 November 2009

Bonus, Bonus, Bonus!

For those of you that are poker enthusiasts I guess you have heard the news about a 22 year old man winning a LADIES poker tournament, officials said that will not refuse entry to the tournament based on gender. The actual winner stated that he was not looking to enter a womans tournament but due to his schedule he could only play this tournament, infact the winner was not the only male to enter the tournament which beggers belief why call it a ladies tournament. I bet Catser Semenya would like these WSOP poker officials running the IAAF athletics board!! Still, the winner got paid his $9k odd winnings and off he went, personally if I was a woman competing in this tournament I would be a bit miffed about this whole situation.

I have never had big wins at poker as I find it takes me a long while just to grind out a few dollars profit and I think is it really worth it? Also you need to have a good memory of hands played and how your opponents acted in certain situations and I find myself easily distracted and not paying too much attention as to whats happening on the poker table! Infact as im writing this post im being distracted by the Ukraine Greece playoff.. Oh my goodness!! Shevchenko just missed two great chances in the opening 7 minutes - positive start from the Ukraine. Come on boys!!

Lets hope my next post will be celebrating the a victory for Ukraine, good luck all!

Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Red or Black?

Whilst watching the football in the Czech casino on Saturday I was tempted to play a little roulette or video poker as there was tons of machines and tables but decided against it as I had been drinking and I always avoid gambling when under the influence of alcohol - it normally ends in tears! I have often had a football bet after a few beers and ticked the wrong box and marked an away win instead of home, I tended to blame the layout of the slips as opposed to the lager I had just been drinking!

Anyway back to the point in hand, I remembered back to good times I have had in casino's before when I have been in Canada. Its a great feeling when one of your numbers pops in the roulette and the rewards can be very high IF your on a run of good luck - LUCK is the single most important thing when playing roulette if your lucks in, its in! I tended to base my number selection around stuff Robbie Fowlers number 23 shirt when he started out at Liverpool and birthdays and stuff - it was fun and exciting especially when red 23 cropped up! The flipside is obviously the losses can accumulate just as quickly so I would never advise any compulsive gambler to try roulette or casino games but if played for fun and with sensible stakes they can be great entertainment.

Monday, 16 November 2009

One of those days...

Predictions and selections, there is a fine line between making a prediction a selection and backing it with your own money. This weekend I had predicted that Russia would beat Slovenia, Portugal to beat Bosnia and Ukraine would draw with Greece 0-0 BUT I only backed Ireland to draw with France. I was very unlucky that in the 72nd minute Anelka had scored a deflected goal as it had looked like a draw up until that point, to be fair to France if anyone deserved to win it would have been them as Ireland offered very little in the way of attack.

I actually watched the playoff games in an underground Czech casino, where it was full of Ukrainians – rammed full of them! I was impressed with Ukraine and they should have won in Greece but as soon as the game finished 0-0 I had a feeling it was going to be one of those days for me. I was still pleased in a way about predicting these results just annoyed with myself at not putting my money where my mouth was.

Let’s hope I can put a stop to these two consecutive losers, which brings me to my next bet and following the game on Saturday I really fancy Ukraine to overcome Greece at home. Ukraine beat England at home most recently in the qualifying group, albeit with the help of a red card and a penalty but they still looked very useful and had several chances. Saturdays performance was also impressive against the Greeks, the only thing missing was a goal but cheered on by their fans on Wednesday night I expect Ukraine to beat Greece. Odds of 1.91 on Betfair are a steal, get on now!

I also fancy a goal fest in Bosnia on Wednesday night, this second leg is delicately poised and I expect it to be end to end stuff. Back over 2.5 goals on Betfair now at a staggering price of 2.12!!

Good Luck All.

Friday, 13 November 2009

The Luck of the Irish?

This weekend sees the first legs of the World Cup Playoffs and the game im concentrating on is Ireland Vs France. It will be a very tight affair and the Irish will not fear the french one bit, Trappatoni has guided this irish team through qualifying group undeafeated with 4 wins and 6 draws and will face the French for a place in this summers World Cup. Ireland will fancy their chances over the two legs but I have a feeling that France will nick it (depsite having the handicap of Raymond Domenech as their manager!), Ireland often shoot themselves in the foot when it comes to the crunch.

For the purpose of this weekends game though im backing draw at 3.20 with Stan James, a great price! First legs are often tight gritty affairs and Ireland have proved already that they tend to draw alot of games with 6 out of the 10 games in qualifying draws. France will be also happy with a draw to take back for the 2nd leg so the odds of 3.20 at Stan James is good value. The other games I expect Russia to see off Slovenia and Portugal to beat Bosnia and a boring 0-0 between Greece and Ukraine, from a personal point of view I would love to see Ireland beat France just to see Michel Platini's reaction.

Backtracking to Wednesday night and the shocking performance from Rochdale against Luton in the FA Cup replay, apologies for those who followed my advice but if Rochdale would have converted one of the 50 million chances they had in the first half then we all would been laughing! Anyway onwards and upwards and lets hope for a tight tense draw in the Ireland V France game tomorrow!

Good Luck All!

Oh just to mention that David Beckhams LA Galaxy take on Houston I believe in MLS playoffs tonight and I will watching the game and will having a small 1-0 punt on the Galaxy.

Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Smicer takes charge of CZ

This week saw Vladimer Smicer appointed as boss of the Czech Republic, which initially seemed like a bizarre decision to appoint Smicer as he has no managerial experience but Mark Hughes went straight into the Welsh job and performed really well so you never know. Smicer played around 90 odd times for his country so he knows what it means to represent your country and I hope (as an ex Liverpool player) he has some success managing the Czech Republic. The Czechs are in a bit of disarray at the moment as they failed to qualify for the World Cup and some senior players being caught in compromising situations!! (errrmmm Milan Baros). I’m sure Smicer will look to youth as he tries to build a team capable of reaching the next European Championships.

Tonight sees the FA Cup first round replay between Rochdale and Luton, the first game at Luton finished 3-3 and I believe you only get one chance of a shock and if Luton were gonna beat Rochdale they missed their chance on Saturday (Luton were 3-1 up until 87 mins when they conceded two late goals).

Now it may not have been much of shock to some people as there is only 1 division between them, but I fully expect Rochdale to beat Luton in tonights replay and leave Luton ruing those late goals on Saturday. Rochdale have been playing some great football this season and previously beat League Two leaders Bournemouth 4-0 away! Take the 1.70 available on Betfair for a home win.

Monday, 9 November 2009

Terry has the last laugh

David Haye managed to see off the 7ft giant Valuev on Saturday night and became a heavyweight World Champion – a great performance. Although the fight wasn’t much of a spectacle due to Valuev’s statue-like performance it was still a night to remember for Haye. Haye had cleared wobbled Valuev in the 12th round as his speed and accuracy paid off.

The FA Cup saw a shock yesterday when Northwich beat League One Charlton unlike at Paulton Rovers on Saturday where Norwich put 7 past them!! It was a good result for Villa in the Premier League on Saturday, beating Bolton 5-1! So I hope the 1.88 that was available on Betfair before kickoff was snapped up as advised. It’s been a decent couple of weeks for myself and im very pleased about how things are progressing. I am being more selective and its paying off.

Chelsea were lucky to get a victory against Man Utd who deserved a draw at least, it was ironic that John Terry would score the winner after The News of The World has published a story about Terry’s dad dealing drugs! I saw the footage and read the article and it’s amazing that John Terry’s dad would do such a thing, im sure there will be a few chants about this next time Chelsea play away in the Premier League.

This coming weekend sees the World Cup playoffs take place and I will have a couple of selections for sure. On a sidenote Liverpool play Birmingham tonight and it will be interesting to see who is fit and if the fans start to get on Rafa’a back , I just hope we get a win and put in a good performance before the international break.

Friday, 6 November 2009

The Magic of the FA Cup

Its been a busy week for me personally as I have just started a new job and have found little time to bet. This weekend sees the FA Cup 1st round take place with several minnows looking to cause an upset, the early kick off tomorrow sees Paulton Rovers entertain Norwich City - this game is a complete mismatch and I wouldnt put anyone off backing Norwich with a handicap of -1.5. Norwich boss Paul Lambert has already been quoted as saying he will play his strongest possible team so I expect a big victory for League One Norwich. I have decided against making this my selection and instead im looking to the Premier League for tomorrows bet.

Aston Villa will host Bolton Wanderers this saturday and I really like the look of a Villa win here, it can be backed on Betfair at odds of 1.88. Now Villa have been dropping a few points recently and will be looking to this game to get back on track, their opponents Bolton have a very poor defence and  I believe they are the only team not to keep a clean sheet this season. I was expecting odds of around 1.70 for a home win and was amazed to see 1.88 so its worth a decent bet, its also worth mentioning that Villa have this fixture for the last two years 4-2 and 4-0 so they like playing Bolton at home!

Its an exciting weekend for sport as its been a long wait for the David Haye V Nicolay Valuev fight on saturday night, you can read my preview for this fight here. I hope some of you were on Valuev at 2.76 as he is now available at 2.26 on betfair. I just hope that the fight lives up to its billing, this weekend also sees another heavyweight clash when Chelsea entertain Manchester United so sit back and enjoy the sport this weekend!

Good Luck to all those having a punt on Villa tomorrow. :-)

Monday, 2 November 2009

Stat Attack

Seeing as its a start of a new month I have been analysing my previous two months selections, I will start with the overall picture of all my football bets to date (including November's selection).

I have given 22 selections resulting in 12 winners (strike rate of 55%)
The average odds of the selections are 2.48 (6/4 in old money)
Prices have ranged from 1.50 to 7.50
Total profit based on £10 level stakes (£20 for max bets LUMP ON) is £87.60

Below is a monthly summary of September and October, no point adding November just yet!

Selections - 8
Winners - 6
Strike Rate - 75%
Average Odds - 3.45
Total Staked - £90
Total Returns - £198.30
Profit - £108.30

Selections - 13
Winners - 5
Strike Rate - 38%
Average Odds - 1.91
Total Staked - £150
Total Returns - £117.80
Loss - £32.20

I have a spreadsheet of all my bets if anyone wants to take a look, September was a great month and October would have been profitable if it wasn't for the MAX BET on Middlesboro failing at the weekend. I know there is room for improvement and certain bets with hindsight shouldnt have been placed (unders AND home win in the same game)

I hope this analysis isnt too confusing?! I am feeling confident about November after Sundays winning bet so lets hope the winners keep coming!

Sunday, 1 November 2009

Cagliari to see off Atlanta

Well before i mention yesterdays shocker im looking forward to Sundays games in Italy and Cagliari are available at 2.15 to see off Atlanta. My reasoning for backing a home win today is that Cagliari are finally starting to find some form (winning their last two games, 1-0 at Lazio previously) and Atlanta stuttered in their last away game at Livorno losing 1-0. Also a massive negative for Atlanta is the injury to star player Edgar Barreto received in midweek - he will be out for up to 3 months, he will be joining a growing injury list for Atlanta.

Odds of 2.15 are very decent on a home win here and should be backed, now back to yesterdays games and I will start with Middlesboro. I was really shocked to see them lose at home to struggling Plymouth, awful result. It just proves that any team can beat anyone on their day in The Championship - note taken! Now Bristol City cost me more money and im going to avoid them, a real bogey team for me. By all accounts Sheffield Wednesday should have won, even with the 5 players they had out with a virus!

Finally, Liverpool. Not much I can say there. Terrible result, more suspensions and I really fear we may miss out on 4th place - I just hope the board give Rafa time to turn it around and see where we are at the end of the season, it may be time to see Jose Mourinho step in during the summer? Who knows.

Good Luck to all having a bet today.