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Jose Mourinho to Real Madrid anyone?

Monday, 21 December 2009

What a weekend!

Its been a busy month for me personally so apologies for the lack of blog activity, what with Christmas coming up I have been busy with work and shopping. This will probably be my last post until the new year as I shall be back in the UK visiting friends and family and taking a couple of weeks break from it all.

This weekend was quite something for supporters of the supposed BIG FOUR! Liverpool limped to a 2-0 defeat at basement club Portsmouth, Fulham humbled champions Manchester United 3-0 and West Ham even managed to hold Chelsea to a 1-1 draw. It was a great weekend for Arsenal fans as they moved 5 points behind leaders Chelsea with a game in hand. Elsewhere Man City sacked Mark Hughes and immediately replacing him with Roberto Mancini who was in stands to City win 4-3 over Sunderland.

Last week also saw the draw for the Champions League and Europa League knockout stages. Liverpool got a very decent draw indeed facing Romanian outfit Unirea and following that they will face Lille or Fenerbache, both of which are beatable. Which should see them make smooth progress to the quarter finals and by then some bigger teams would have fallen such as Juve, Bremen, Valencia, Benfica, Marseille, Villareal and Wolfsburg.

So the bet for me is Liverpool on the outright market (13/2 with totesport) or Betfair at 7.4 with a view to lay some of it off at the quarter finals stage. Liverpool should be around 4/1 to win this competition after the draw was made so the 13/2 is very fair indeed. Liverpool seem to be in freefall currently but by February 2010 when the next Europa League matches are played I expect their form to have picked up and Gerrard, Torres and Aquilani to be firing on all cylinders - if Benitez is still there it remains to be seen? As I now believe his time is up but the squad is strong enough with or without Rafa to make the latter stages of the Europa League.

I hope you all have a good Christmas and see you in the new year.

Wednesday, 16 December 2009

Race to 4th Place

We have an array of Premiership games to bet on this week and the fixture which stands out for me tonight is Tottenham Vs Man City. It should be a cracking game, end to end stuff as the 4th place hopefuls look for three points. I can’t believe that 4th place has such significance these days, its like winning the league for most clubs which is a sorry state of affairs but shows how much football has moved on with the influx of money and big business. Shankly would be turning in his grave to see Liverpool’s target this season is 4th place, which reminds that Liverpool dropped to 8th place last night after Birmingham won again last night! Oh dear..

Back to the game in hand and we all know that Spurs and City like to attack and I can see a few goals being shipped tonight, City drew 3-3 last time out at Bolton and you can forget Spurs 1-0 defeat at home to Wolves on Saturday as Wolves “parked the bus”. I expect Citys attacking play will create space and chances for the hosts so the bet is over 2.5 goals at 1.76 on Betfair currently. Those who want a bigger price wait 5/10 minutes and the price will be nearer evens but of course running the risk of an early goal.

I remember a few years back the Spurs/City 4-3 game where spurs were leading 3-0 at half time and went on to lose the game 4-3! Not sure what price was matched on City 3-0 down at half time but it must have been HUGE!

Monday, 14 December 2009

Mind over Matter...

This weekend I was in two minds about what to back after the midweek failure on Barnsley to overcome Scunthorpe, an element of fear had entered my mind whilst looking at the games. When im on a good run there is a feeling of confidence and “invincibility” to a certain extent but the second a loser crops up it makes me take a step back and fear then creeps back into my selections.

I definitely believe that gambling and trading is 20% market knowledge and 80% mind control. To become successful you need remove emotion when placing bets and trades. The feeling of euphoria after winning bets can be just as bad as the feeling of disappoint when losing a bet, over-confidence can lead to bad judgments on staking and reading the markets incorrectly which will cause major damage to your bank. Whereas fear of losing will lead to hesitant and failure to spot a winning bet.

I have lost banks before which stemmed from over confidence and then chasing my losses, the classic boom and bust scenario. I then used to try and do as much research as possible on the markets and sports I was betting and then 6/12 months later I would lose it all again. It all boiled down to discipline and emotions. No matter how much you know or think you know about sports betting if you do not have discipline you will lose it all at some stage.

The key to it all is removing emotion from the situation and finding an edge Once you have an edge and can remove emotion from betting/trading you will have a key to the gold mine and consistent profits. I believe I have an edge I just need to train my mind so I can start making consistent profits month on month. This blog has been a great help for me, documenting my thoughts, ideas and bets has definitely improved my discipline I just need that final push which allows me to see opportunities without fear and over confidence. Although I feel it could be a while before that happens!

Wednesday, 9 December 2009

That Man and Robins.

Tonights CL games are uninspiring from a betting point of view, it will be interesting to see Aquilani start his first game for Liverpool as I was beginning to believe that Aquilani wasn’t actually real! I appreciate that Rafa wants to protect him and games against Blackburn and Everton could have been bruising encounters but this is the Premier League for gods sake! Most of the teams are physical, it’s a tough league!

Last nights CL games threw up a couple of shocks with Bayern trouncing Juve 4-1 in Italy to knock out Juventus and send the German team through also an injury hit united side beat German champions Wolfsburg 3-1 (not sure if that’s a shock but it seemed like it after all the publicity about uniteds makeshift defence) with that man Michael Owen grabbing a hat-trick! Chelsea also got held at home 2-2 but the game was meaningless so im not reading too much into it – although Chelsea are now winless in 3 games in all competitions.

My bet tonight is Barnsley to beat Scunthorpe in The Championship, Barnsley are on a terrific run at the moment with confidence high. I believe Barnsley are now turning into a very tough team to beat under Mark Robins and can win games ugly as well as knock the ball about with some style. Scuthorpe really don’t travel well and I will be expecting a home win tonight, available at 1.83 with most bookies.

Good Luck All.

Sunday, 6 December 2009

What a difference a week makes!

The result yesterday evening was bitter sweet for me, after seeing Liverpool stutter to a point at Blackburn I was hoping Chelsea would take something from Man City as they are Liverpools direct rivals for 4th place this season but on the other hand I already backed City to win on Thursday at odds 2/1 (draw no bet). Even the winnings from that game couldnt really cheer me up as I was still mulling over the league table and the small matter of Arsenal next week!

What a difference a week has made to Mark Hughes and his City billionaires, I was listening to Martin Samuel talk about Citys run of 7 consecutive league draws and how the results after these draws would define that run - if City lost the next two games it would have been a huge blow for confidence (winless in 9 etc) BUT if City won their next two games it would have been unbeaten in 9 and all of a sudden things start to look rosey at Eastlands. The fact it was Arsenal (albeit a youthful Arsenal) and Chelsea that Manchester City beat this week also speaks volumes about how they can mix it with the bigboys so this has been the biggest week for Mark Hughes and I hope City stick with him.

I hope some of you were braver than me and did back City at 7/2, if not I hope at least some of you got the 2/1 on the draw no bet. This weeks sees the final round of CL games and some FA Cup replays and I will update my thoughts over the next few days.

Thursday, 3 December 2009

City again anyone?

It proved to be a good bet last night on Manchester City and I was pleased with the odds against price obtained from William Hill earlier in the week. As expected City’s experience and power proved too much for Arsenals young guns, there was even a war of words after the game between the two managers as Wenger didn’t shake hands with City boss Hughes. I guess that’s out of frustration on Wenger’s part as that’s now 3 defeats on the bounce now for Arsenal and with main front man Van Persie out for 5 months it could get worse before it gets better!

Going forward to this weekend’s games I really fancy Manchester City to get something out of the game against Chelsea. I have a sneaky feeling that Chelsea will slip up here, and the selection this weekend is Draw No Bet on Manchester City to beat Chelsea at odds of 2/1! For those feeling brave you can back City at 7/2 to win but I like the insurance of my stakes refunded if it’s a draw. Chelsea have looked unstoppable at times this season but have also thrown in a couple of dodgy away performances (losing 3-1 at Wigan and 2-1 at Villa) and City will be buoyed by last night’s result over Arsenal.

Good news for Liverpool this week with Torres been declared fit for Saturdays game at Ewood Park which will be very tough and could go either way, Blackburn have a good home record with only 1 defeat at home in the league, I hope its 2 come Saturday evening!

Good Luck All.

Tuesday, 1 December 2009

The Carling Cup

I was tempted this weekend to back Fulham again after their victory midweek against Blackburn but I had a feeling that Bolton would be desperate to get back on track after 3 successive league defeats and was proved right after picking up a point at Fulham. So I just decided to sit back and watch the Merseyside derby this weekend and was thrilled to see Liverpool beat Everton, even though we rode our luck at times but in Pepe Reina Liverpool have a world class keeper and long may this type of performance continue.

Midweek sees the return of the Carling Cup and the fixture that interests me is the Man City Vs Arsenal game tomorrow night, the bet for me is Man City to win at 21/20 with William Hill. I was expecting 4/5 or 4/6 on City winning so odds against is a great price in my eyes. Arsene Wenger is very loyal to his youngsters in this competition whereas City will field a very strong team with experience. I strongly believe that City will have that bit extra to see off Arsenals youngsters and Mark Hughes will see this competition as a stepping stone for bigger things, if City are to break into the top 4 they need the experience and mentality of winning trophies and The Carling Cup could prove vital to Manchester City this season.

Good Luck All.