Super Sunday

Yesterdays prediction was spot on with Palace running out easy winners 2-0 - I love it when opportunities like that arise. Its a reminder that there is always a decent bet around the corner, never bet for the sake of it as next week you will need your cash for the opportunities that are staring you in the face!

Today sees Arsenal host Manchester United in what could prove to be a cracker of a game, over recent years Ferguson and Wenger have shown lots of respect towards each other in the media as their enemies have now become Benitez, Mancini and previously Mourinho and Mark Hughes. Fergie has pleaded with his fans to lay off Wenger with the sick chants that Man Utd fans direct at him - which is a sign of growing respect between the two managers.

I suspect todays game to be very tight with neither team wanting to lose this game, I expect there to be a few goals after a tight 30 minutes or and would back a correct score of 2-2 at 14/1 (those who want to wait 30 mins and then back 2-2 on Betfair for a much bigger price). I also like the look of Fabregas first goal at 10/1 with bluesquare.com, Cesc has probably been the best midfielder in the league this year he has been carrying Arsenal like Gerrard used to for Liverpool (I say "used to" as Gerrard has been below par for the last 12 months).

Good Luck to all today and enjoy the game!

Warnock to Rally the Troops!

This week saw Crystal Palace go into administration and face a ten point deduction dropping them to a place outside the relegation zone. Obviously a false position but yet Crystal Palace's match against bottom side Peterborough has been priced up as a relegation clash! Palace are 1.80 with most bookies to beat a poor Peterborough side who are winless away from home, this is a great bet and maximum bet is advised on Palace today.

Neil Warnock will use the fact they have gone to administration in their favour and create a siege mentally which will see Palace play out of their skins today - im sure of this. Palace should be 1.66 at best to see off Peterborough - get on now with bet365.com or 888sport. Infact Betfair is around 1.83/1.84.

Liverpool take on Owen Coyles Bolton this afternoon at Anfield as the reds need to put on a performance today and start finding the back of net. Rafa has been linked with Juventus as Ciro Ferrera got sacked yesterday and im sure rumours would intensify if Liverpool slip up again today.

Good Luck All.

Over Cooked

Two words to be optimistic of Englands chances in the summer… Wayne Rooney. Rooney is the best form of his life right now, banging in 4 goals last weekend against Hull and then scoring the winner in seml final last night against rivals Man City (the second time this season City have been undone at Old Trafford in stoppage time). Man City’s chief executive Garry Cook had made a bold statement recently about City’s ambition to be in the biggest club in the world, Fergie must have been rubbing his hands at the timing of Cooks statement. I can’t help but feel that Cook wont be at City for too long, he reminds me of a naive Peter Kenyon and some of the comments he has been making have made me cringe.

West Ham were unlucky not to beat Portsmouth this week, which was disappointing to say the least as I was on course for a correct 1-0 result and away win until Pompey equalized with 14 minutes left. Still onwards and upwards, tonights see the semi finals of the African Nations cup and the bet for me tonight is Ghana to qualify at the expense of Nigeria. God knows how Nigeria have got so far playing the negative football they do, Yakubu is bad enough when played upfront with a partner but playing as a lone striker!? (cue Yakubu hat trick) On the other hand Ghana have a great young team and I expect them to have too much for Nigeria.

Good Luck All.

What If?

I was shocked to see that Algeria had beaten tournament favorites Ivory Coast in the African Nations Cup, this result will have been a major positive for England as it highlights the danger of Algeria. Im sure Fabio Capello would have been watching this game closely and would have learnt a lot from it.

It’s been a case of “what if?” for me lately; I was looking at backing Martin Kaymer for the Golf and Ghana outright for the ACON before a ball was kicked (I was so impressed by the Ghana U20’s in the recent U20’s World Cup) but I backed neither. I think im too impatient for these kinds of bets, waiting 4 days for the golf to finish and a few weeks for the Ghana bet – I prefer to see an outcome the same day I need to learn to trust my instinct and apply more patience. I know 4 days isn’t a lot but its much longer than a 6f race at Kempton!
I like the look of West Ham to beat Portsmouth tomorrow, Portsmouth are in a mess and struggling to find a side to put together. I read they may only name 3 subs! I somehow doubt that but this news coupled with West Hams recent performance at Villa Park and the new takeover I expect more positive results for the hammers. Back West Ham 1-0 correct score at 9.4 and West Ham to win at a stonking 3.10 both on Betfair.

Its all about timing...

It was one bet I didnt mind losing when backing both teams to score in the Liverpool V Spurs game on wednesday night! Liverpool played with passion and determination something the vistors lacked, Spurs were very average and inparticular Gareth Bale had a poor game. I am still waiting for Bale to actually produce something since his move to Tottenham a few years back, a very over rated player in my opinion - the fact Carragher beat him for pace summed it all up for Spurs.

I have been playing alot in the goals market recently with a great deal of success, I believe that these markets suit my style of inplay betting. I can read a match much better than I intially thought after predicting goals in the second half of the Mallorca Getafe cup game on wednesday (0-0 at HT 1-2 at FT) I lumped on over 1.5 and a bit 2.5 goals at half time and was duly rewarded with 3 second half goals, odds of 2.58 of over 1.5 was very generous and duly greened up after the first goal when odds dropped to 1.40.

And again in the Cameroon game last night, with the score at 0-1 to Tunisia I was expecting Cameroon to come out all guns balzing in a bid to qualify for the knockout stages. Both teams needed a positive result to qualify so end to end action was on the cards so a nice bet at 2.52 on over 2.5 goals at HT paid off when the the final score was 2-2. Of course hindsight is a wonderful thing when looking back on these bets but with the right research it makes these inplay markets a good source of winners, even 1 goal allows an opportunity to trade.

On a seperate note what application or gadget would anyone advise to upload screenshots onto blogspot?

Tweet Tweet

Just a quick post to mention that I have signed up with Twitter - I decided that Twitter is a quicker way to express my reactions and thoughts on bets and events. I will still be blogging but also supplementing it by using twitter. I also get to follow a few others that I like including Tim Lovejoy, Ian Poulter, Davina McCall and Sara Cox!!

You can find me on http://twitter.com/lumponsports.

Happy Tweeting!

Half Empty of Hall Full?

Liverpools season could take a huge step towards repairing itself tomorrow evening when they host Tottenham in which the winner will take a massive physcological boost in the race for 4th place. As a Liverpool fan I have been very depressed all season but looking at the table we are only 4 points from 4th place and this after playing so bad all season - it feels like we should be much further from 4th place so im remaining optimistic and hope Liverpool push on the second half of the season. A good bet for tomorrow nights game is both teams to score at 1.73 on Betfair.

On a personal note I have been making pleasing progress with my betting, over £200 in profit over the last 7 days but today I wiped out £170 in less an hour on horse racing - a stupid £20 loss in the first resulted in a chasing session which cleaned out my profits almost. Will I ever learn? If only I could practice what I preach!! arrgggh

I hope a few of you were on the Sergio Canales first goal at 13/2 on Sunday (thank god the first was an own goal!) It more than made up for the game finishing in a draw.

Good Luck All.

LUMP ON BET!

Its been a while since I have posted but today I have a great bet in Spain for this afternoon.

Racing Santander to beat Valladoid at 1.99 on betfair, I make it a lump on bet for me as Santander are flying at the moment with 4 wins out of the last 5 including victory in seville last week. The visitors Valladoid have been in terrible form lately being thumped at home 4-0 to Athletico Madrid add together the low morale and missing players for todays game it makes Racing Santander a big bet for me.

Its just an hour to kick off so be quick! I also like the look for youngster Sergio Canales to score first at 13/2 on bet365 - the 18 year old striker for Santander scored a brace last weekend and has attracted the attention on the big boys in Spain.

Good Luck All.

Third Time Unlucky

Well the 1 goal challenge lasted a grand total of 3 games before Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso had ruined the dream of becoming a millionaire through backing 1 goal or more. Although I lost 20 quid it was my pride that was more dented by only managing two winning bets before hitting a nil nil. With hindsight I should have given more thought to where the goals where going to come from, Burkina Faso were always gonna play for a 0-0, keep it tight and try a nick it late on and the emphasis was on Ivory Coast to break down their African counterparts.

No problem, I thought. Didier Drogba and co should bash a hatful past them but it wasn’t to be and the challenge ended over a miserable 3 games. Still lesson learnt and im going to stay away from International games, cannot be trusted as more often than not the minnows will put in a resolute performance and busting many banks in the process.

It’s not all boring 0-0’s in the African Nations Cup as hosts Angola drew 4-4 with Mali in an amazing first game, Angola were 4-0 up with 78 minutes with the draw at odds of 1000 on Betfair – cue Mali comeback.

I will be back with the 1goal challenge, after my wounds have healed.

To Score or Not to Score?

That is the question! For a bit of fun I have decided to attempt the 1 goal or more challenge, I will start with a bank of 20 pounds and back 1 goal or more in selected games with my whole bank each time. Normally the odds vary from 1.05 to 1.15 and if I can hit around 50 winners in a row I will be looking to stop and bank the profits (although I will probably be tempted to bank some profits along the way!).

I have seen many attempts of this challenge on betfair forums and other blogs and it looks achievable giving good research and a bit of luck along the way. If I lose the 20 pounds after 3 bets then so be it! Hopefully it will help me improve my displine and Im always interested to try out other markets on Betfair.

I have stumbled across this website http://www.1goal.in/ which shows this can be done, with some users hitting 97 winners in a row before coming against a 0-0. It also provides you with a list of fixtures for the coming week and which leagues have the most goals scored - a handy little tool I shall be using. I will update my progress on the blog every few days so fingers crossed it rains goals for the next month or two!

Good Luck if you decide to take up this challenge also!

Can anyone advise what how to upload screenshots onto blogspot?? Thanks :-)

Onwards and Upwards

I have recharged the batteries and over indulged during the Christmas break! I have also been pondering on how to approach my betting for 2010, I have been constantly battling the emotions of euphoria and depression when encountering winners and losers which subsequently results in adverse staking. I have become much better over the last few months since starting this blog and reading others who have the same patterns and behavior as myself. As of February I will be starting with a set bank and keeping track on this blog of my daily profits and losses which I hope will give me the final push into consistent profit making!

Also over the Christmas period I received an email from a new horse racing tipster called Nags and Niggles , it’s a husband and wife team who sent me a list of their results for the last 5 years (although not proofed, but I gave them the benefit of the doubt) and their strike rate is around 40% with the average price (SP) just over 2/1. You would have made 20k profit betting to 100 level stakes on each selection over the last five years which is a very decent return. They have started the service on 1st January 2010 and they are offering a free 7 day trial, its definitely worth a look and I will be reviewing the tips I receive over the next 3 months.

Not much football to go on this week with the weather playing havoc with the fixture list, so I will be back for the weekends action.