Betfair rules my life..

Well the title of the thread has been true of the past few days, I have had a few spare quid and I have been playing around on betfair and managed to build up a nice little bank (many thanks to ajax conceding a late goal in cup, layed them at 1.16.. oh happy days). Though i must admit I had lost a bit previously laying any unquoted in the Inter Vs Palermo game when Inter went 2-0, so its been swings and roundabouts but I have been enjoying the UK horseracing also on betfair which is reminding me of home so that was nice, not to mention the profits! (special thanks to Yoshi and RP on betfair forum for a 21/1 winner today!).

Back to football this weekend and I fancy Bristol City (1.87 on betfair) to beat Sheff Wed, everything points to a home win here and the word is that Sheff Wed have been hit by the swine flu thats going round and a few academy players will be included in the squad to face Bristol City. Don't forget the Middlesboro bet also, I still have them as a massive favourite to beat struggling Plymouth - still available at 1.50 at most bookies.

Heres hoping to a winning day on Saturday, I will be out most of Saturday which will limit my Betfair time which is a good thing. The last few days have made me realise how addicting and easy it can be to sit and bet/trade all day on Betfair. Enjoy the weekend and the football, Good Luck All!

Gordon Strachan takes Boro Job

Poor old Gareth Southgate was sacked recently as Middlesbrough boss, it was strange circumstances as they had just beaten Derby and were a point off the top of The Championship but attendances had fallen significantly as boro fans had seen enough of Southgates football and this ultimately cost him his job. Rumours of players unrest and some poor performances contributed, most notably a 5-0 thrashing at home by West Brom.

So Gordon Strachan is the man who has taken his place, a very lively charactor whose post match interviews are normally very entertaining to watch - I remember one in particular where Delgado went AWOL after an international game and Strachan refused to talk about it insisting had had more important matters like a yoghurt that went out of date!! Genius, here is some of his best interviews - courtsey of Soccer AM and you tube.

Back to the business in hand as Middlesboro take on Plymouth this saturday and I can't see anything else than a home win, Plymouth are probably the worst team in the league and odds of 1.53 with skybet make it a maximum LUMP ON bet for me this weekend, so get on early. Betfair had odds of 1.54 yesterday but have dropped to 1.50 - I expect it to be nearer 1.40-1.45 come kick off some trading to be made here. New managers coming in normally see an improvement in performances although Boro wouldnt have to improve much to see off strugglers Plymouth (who make a 700 mile round trip to The Riverside!).

Wanted to post this early so people can still get the decent price.

Yesssssssssss!

What a day yesterday was, Liverpool outplaying Man Utd and beating them 2-0! It was a deserved victory as Liverpool played with a high tempo and attacking football, Yossi Benayoun and Fernando Torres particulary impressing - Jamie Carragher was fortunate to stay on as he was the last man when bringing down Michael Owen but this was the piece of luck Liverpool have been missing in recent weeks. Lets hope they kick on from here and string some results together.

It was also a good day for my bank balance as Villareal beat Malaga 2-1 making it two out of two for me this weekend. This week sees the return of the Carling Cup, I usually avoid betting on this cup as its a minefield of understrength teams but I will take a closer look at the games and see if there is any value.

More than likely I will be back betting at the weekend, Good Luck to all having a bet this week.

The Yellow Submarine

For those that follow Spanish football will know the trouble that Villareal are currently in - "the yellow submarine" are rooted to the bottom of La Liga and face a Malaga team who are in freefall also. This will really be a basement battle but I expect Villareal to pick their first win of the season (1.70 with William Hill). Villareal were very unlucky in defeat against fellow strugglers Xerez last week having dominated the game and failing to take their chances. Its been the same old story all season, playing well but not taking chances but Sundays game at home to Malaga should be the perfect tonic for Villareal to break their duck.

Having seen the play-off draw for the World Cup taken place earlier this week one tie in particular stands for me - Portugal Vs Bosnia-Herzegovina GOALS, GOALS, GOALS was my intial reaction! Portugal have the genius that is Cristanio Ronaldo and Bosnia are so gung ho its unreal - a really good attacking team but awful at the back. So when this tie comes round (Nov 14/18 I believe) I would back over 2.5 goals in both matches OR back Portugal to be the highest scoring team in the Play-Offs for the World Cup at 3.75 with Boylesports.

It was really pleasing to see my selection come through today with Peterborough winning 3-0 against Scunthorpe at odds of 2.38 - I hope you all had a piece of this. I just hope im this happy tomorrow after the Liverpool Vs Man United game, it should be a great day of football with West Ham Vs Arsenal after the Liverpool game. Im nervously exicted about the game tomorrow and just hope we get our season back on track with a win against Man Utd, good luck all!

How to solve a problem like Liverpool

Now I havent posted for a few days as I have been busy and trying to take my mind off football for a bit! This morning I was trying to work out what is going wrong at Liverpool and I believe it starts at the top, the problems with the board has had a negative effect on the financial side of the club - rafa has had to sell before he can buy.People will point to the £17m spent on Glen Johnson and £22m on Aquilani in the summer but Alonso and Keane were both sold recouping almost £50m. The two owners Gillett and Hicks have fallen out which is never positive for any business, the manager gets frustrated which then filters down to the players. Its the same situation at West Ham inregards to the uncertainty at the top of the club, there is no money available and all of this effects the staff of the club.

The flip side are teams like Sunderland, Man City and Chelsea - these have been backed with cash, the board back the manager and are financially stable with funds to invest in the playing squad. All of this has a postive impact on the club and the results are being shown on the pitch, the quicker Gillett and Hicks are out of Anfield and new owner is in place who has Liverpools best intentions at heart (and not to mention cash!) the better for everyone connected with the club. Its they way football in this current day age is going, you need cash to compete at the top level.

Secondly the injury crisis is very bad indeed, I know some people will see this as an excuse but it just proves the first point I made about cash as Liverpool need to invest in the squad as the fringe players are not good enough. Liverpool have had Gerrard, Torres, Aquilani, Agger and Johnson all injured recently thats over 120m/130m worth of talent at least! Any club will miss those calibre of players so its gonna effect the results and the confidence of the team which was evident in the game against Lyon and this is all before I mention a certain beach ball!!!

When these players start coming back from injury results will improve and confidence will get higher so fans should back the club and back the manager when they need it most and look at the bigger picture. The problems at board level need to sorted and quick, Gillett and Hicks out and a new owner must be found who can back the manager with the funds to build and improve the squad.

Anyway rant over and this weekend im backing Peterborough to beat Scunthorpe at home (2.38 with skybet). Scunthorpe seem to up their game against the big teams and seem to struggle when facing teams at the bottom (2-1 defeat to Plymouth) and i fear that their last two performances have taken alot out of them. Peterborough have been playing well but not getting the results (ignore the leat performance against Doncaster).

Good Luck All.

I must be crazy

Well I have two tips for tonights games and both are based on "gut-feeling", normally I will back up my selections with stats and solid reasons why I think a team will win but the first tip tonight it hards to find any stats apart from the law of averages! Ipswich Town, now Ipswich havent won a game all season (P12 W0 D6 L6) and face Watford at home tonight in the Championship but I have been feeling a home win for the last couple days (odds of 2.20 is available with most bookmakers). Ipswich should be mid table at least and I believe its just a matter of time before the team gels and starts winning games, and tonights home match under the floodlights with a good home support should see that first win!

The second game is Liverpool V Lyon in the Champions League, Liverpool have been on a 3 game losing streak but tonight sees the return of captain Steve Gerrard which is a massive boost. Its a must win for the home side and the price 1.83 is a good bet, European nights are always a bit special at Anfield and this coupled with Gerrards return should see a dramatic improvement in the quality of Liverpools play. I will be watching the game with extra nerves now!

Sundays result in La Liga was pleasing seing Espanyol beat Tenerife 2-1 at odds of 1.94, although the unders bet didnt come in and with hindsight I should have just backed Espanyol and left the goals market alone (1-0 or 2-0 would have been the only result which would have given both winning bets) but we live and learn.. Also Fulham strolled to a 2-0 win over fellow strugglers Hull so all in all its been a decent weekend, lets hope the home support plays a part in tonights games!

Good Luck All.

Reaction & La Liga

Two words today, Steve Bruce. I hate the guy, he always seems to get one over Liverpool - when he was a player at Man Utd, manager at Birmingham and now his Sunderland team beat us. Fair play to them, they did deserve to win as Liverpool were very poor and Bruce is building a very good team at Sunderland Jones and Bent are a great strike force and for that Bruce does have my respect but i hate playing his teams!!

Seeing Peterborough make it 1-1 in injury time also hurt yesterday but looking at the game a draw was a fair result so im not grumbling too much. Still got Fulham to look forward tomorrow and im very confident that Fulham will win with ease on Monday but I have found another bet today in Spain. I watched Real Madrid beat Valladoid 4-2 and I was amazed at how poor they are at the back but going forward they are awesome - Higuian scored a belter of a goal (he is now my fave Madrid player).

Todays game that caught my attention is Espanyol V Tenerife - 1.94 for a home win on betfair is a good bet. Tenerife have lost all 3 away games without scoring this season and I expect a fully fit Espanyol squad (Raul Tamudo is left out due to disciplinary issues) to beat Tenerife, another interesting stat is that Espanyol have won the last 5 of their home fixtures against Tenerife (OK, this stat does date back a few years but still a good pointer). I would also advise backing under 2.5 goals at 1.86 as both teams have struggled in front of goal this year, Espanyol have scored 5 goals in 6 games and Tenerife have scored 3 goals in 6 games!!

So just to recap, Back Espanyol against Tenerife 1.94 and Under 2.5 goals 1.86 both on Betfair.

Good Luck All.

Advice for the weekend

I have studied the games carefully this weekend and have found two very decent bets indeed, the first game takes place in The Championship - Bristol City Vs Peterborough. The odds of 1.86 on betfair for a home win is a great price, Bristol City are a team who are very strong at home (P5 W4 D1 L0) this season and I expect them to have too much for a recently promoted Peterborough side. Peterborough are a young side on a 3 game losing streak and they are finding life tough in this division, I believe they will stay up come May but their home form will  be the key.

The second game I like is Fulham Vs Hull in the Premiership, this game is on Monday so we have a few days to place the bet but the odds of 1.70 with Paddy Power for a Fulham win must be taken. Fulham are a very good team, better than their current league position suggests and everyone knows about Hulls problems. I believe that Phil Brown is on borrowed time, ever since the half time team talk he gave on the pitch at Eastlands I opinion of him has dropped greatly (not to mention the singing after the game at the end of last season, eeek!)  I will be looking to oppose Hull for most of the season, especially away from home.

On a personal note im not looking forward to Liverpools trip to Sunderland, its always a struggle after the international break and playing away at Sunderland is no easy task and I fear that a rested Darren Bent will pose our back line problems. Lets hope Torres and Gerrard are fit and ready otherwise there could be problems!

Good Luck to all having a bet.

And the World Cup Winner is...

I have been looking at the odds for the outright winner on the World Cup market and there are 3 teams I am going to concentrate on. First up for win purposes only is Brazil.

Brazil
Brazil are always the first team that comes to mind when a World Cup is on the horizon, they have looked very impressive during qualiying and manager Dunga has instilled a work ethic into the current side which may have been lacking previously. Brazil are my clear favourties to win in South Africa. I would advise backing them at 5/1 available at most bookmakers.

Russia
Guus Hiddinks men face a play off to qualify for South Africa but being one of the seeds in the draw I would expect them to overcome any opponent so the odds on offer of 40/1 represent value, Guus Hiddink dragged South Korea to the semi finals of the World Cup and it wouldnt surprise me to see Russia there at the business end of the tournament. Russia's captain Arshavin is a great player, probably one of the best creative attacking players in Europe. Back E/W at 40/1 or back on betfair and trade later on in the tournament.

Ghana
Ghana are a very strong team and have a few premiership players most notably Michel Essien, they qualifed with two games remaining and in my mind are the strongest of the African teams. The only problem I see with Ghana is the lack of depth in the squad which could count against them if they reach the tail end of the tournament but odds of 80/1 are very good indeed. Back them each way or a view to trade later in the tournament. I can see the locals supporting Ghana once South Africa are knocked out and that support could prove vital.

All prices quoted are with Skybet.

Looking forward to Haye/Valuev fight

I have just seen the David Haye press conference and some of the quotes are great! Its one of the most entertaining parts of boxing, all the build up and all the trash talking and no one is better than David Haye "I've never been a big fan of the matted hair in my face. The size I am, I sort of come up to his chest and apparently the word around the campfire is that he doesn't smell too sweet. Hopefully he runs a cold tap over himself or someone hoses him down outside before he comes in." Brilliant!!

These quotes had me in stitches, the press conference at the end shows David Haye smashing the head off a giant cardboard cutout off Valuev. Reminds me of Rocky IV with Apollo Creed and Ivan Drago, classic! I can't wait for November 7th in what promises to be one of the most eagerly awaited fights of the year, lets hope Haye does Britain proud. Check out my advice previously on Haye Vs Valuev
 
Back to football and I will have a couple of picks for this weekends games in The Championship and League One, I will also share my ante post views on the World Cup in the next few days.

Back to winning ways!

Well I was very happy to see Japan win 2-0 on Saturday as I had been very vocal about this bet, come kick off time I was very nervous and all kinds of different thoughts were going through my head! Japan did dominate the game but credit to the Scots for holding out for so long.

Another pleasing result was Finland beating Wales 2-1 at odds of 1.92 so two good wins this weekend sees the bank increase and I hope several of you made some cash too! Its always a risk when betting on International Friendlies but I had such a strong belief about the Japan game it was too good to miss! And the price on Finland was too big, should have been 1.70-ish.

I will check out the midweek games but more than likely I will be looking at the coming weekend games. Oh by the way the Eastenders Mark Fowler lookalike in the picture is not me!

Wheelbarrow ALERT!!

Just a quick post as no doubt many of you have noticed about the number of withdrawls Scotland have had from their friendly game in Japan this weekend - losing captain Darren Fletcher is a massive blow not to mention the other 9 players that have withdrawn from the squad!!!

Scotland will travel to Japan facing a tough task anyway but after all of these withdrawals I have decided to get the wheelbarrow out and LUMP ON Japan to beat Scotland this Saturday at 1.75 with Totesport.

Scotlands XI that will line up on Saturday in Japan will be of a very poor standard and I fully expect Japan to beat them in their own country.

Two posts in one day!! But snap up the 1.75 while you can...

LUMP ON!!

World Cup Weekend

This coming weekend sees the latest round of European Qualifers for the 2010 World Cup, with Englands place already secured the pressure is off Fabio's Capello men as they line up in the Ukraine seeking a ninth straight victory in qualifying. My attention for betting purposes is drawn elsewhere in Europe, it focuses on the 3pm kick off in Finland. I really like the odds of 1.92 for Finland to beat Wales at home, the game itself is a dead rubber but I was expecting the price to be nearer 1.72 so at these odds Finland need to be backed.

Finland beat Wales 2-0 in the reverse fixture with the Welsh looking very shaky at the back, keeper Wayne Hennessy kept the welsh team in it at times and I expect the Finns to heap more misery on this young welsh team. The only concern was that Finland failed to beat whipping boys Liechtenstein last time out (drawing 1-1 away) hence im not going overboard on this one.

After my comment's recently about Czech football being very poor I was expecting the Czech Republic to be a decent price at home to Poland in their crucial WC qualifer but the odds of 1.60 with Betfair is a little tight for me, I would want to back them at 1.72 or higher. It will be a very tight game and one best avoided from a betting perspective.

Elsewhere back home in England I have a potential bet lined up in League Two this weekend but will wait until Thursday/Friday before deciding if its a selection or not. Just a quick comment also on the fact that the England game is internet only, shocking!! £11.99 to watch it on match day is a joke, I wouldn't pay that with the bookies money let alone mine!

Good Luck all!

Miserable Monday

Well it was one of those weekends for predictions, Oldham had 3 clear chances against Yeovil but failed to take any and drew 0-0. Burnley beat Birmingham 2-1 but I decided against them and to top it all off yesterday Liverpool lose 2-0 with Drogba creating both goals and failing to score himself!! Overall it was very disappointing although im not too down heartened, Oldham done enough to win and not backing Burnley was a rational decision so im still quite pleased in a way.

I believe that Liverpool should have got a point yesterday but I guess im biased huh! Benitez got his team wrong yesterday, Benayoun should have started instead of Riera - as benny is a man in great form and should have started and Carragher's lack of pace is catching up with him for sure. I also fear that we may ruin Ryan Babel, he should play up top with Torres as a centre forward ideally - Ryan is a footballer that needs confidence to thrive and would hope he gets a run of games soon out on the wing supporting Torres at least. It looks like Benitez's style of man management is not suited to Ryan Babel and if I was Arsene Wenger I would get the cheque book out and sign Babel - I can just see him suiting Arsenals style of play, I just hope he does get a run in the team at Anfield at some point. One positive from yesterday was Insua's performance, a great left back in the making - big, strong and quick.

International break is coming up, I hate these breaks from the Premier League especially after a defeat to one of your rivals. I normally try avoid the newspapers and media after a defeat but I have a few sports podcasts to listen too so im going to brave them today! Another thing I have learnt recently is to oppose Czech teams when playing in Europe, having just moved to Prague recently I have noticed that Czech football is a very poor standard indeed - so im going to check out Sparta/Slavia fixtures in the Europe League for any "wheelbarrow" opportunities.

Weekends Preview

This weekend sees Chelsea Vs Liverpool which should be a cracker of a game, I think Cech being suspended is a big miss for Chelsea and Liverpool will be looking to bounce back after their defeat midweek in the Champions League. I expect there to be a few goals and Didier Drogba is a man who always comes good against Liverpool and I make him a selection to score anytime at 2.88 with Corals (15/8). I will settle for Liverpool to win 4-1 with Drogba grabbing a late consolation!! I will be watching the game on Sunday very nervously as I do all Liverpool matches.

Back to saturdays games and my intial thoughts was Burnley at home to beat Birmingham at 2.40 (with expekt.com) is a cracking price! They have won all 3 home games in the league against Man Utd, Everton and Sunderland which is a very decent start at home BUT now they are expected to beat Birmingham. Previously they have been the underdogs and im not sure how they will cope with being favourites in this game - so I have decided against making Burnley a selection this weekend but will be watching the game closely for future reference as Burnley at home will be very profitable this season.

Looking further down the leagues I have spotted a very decent bet in  League One, Oldham to beat Yeovil at home 1.83 is available with most bookmakers. Oldham are on a good run at the moment winning 3 on the bounce - most notably MK Dons last time out and I fully expect them to turn over Yeovil (winless away from home). Yeovil will make a near 500 mile round trip to Oldham and back on coach and I believe the journey will also be a factor in Oldhams favour.

Good Luck to all those having a bet this weekend.

September's Summary

Well last night was pleasing, CSKA duly obliged with the first LUMP ON! bet advised by beating Besiktas 2-1 and looking back at the month it has been very profitable with the advice given.

Blackburn to beat Wolves - 1.85 WON
Marseille to beat AC Milan - 2.50 LOST
Bordeaux to beat Inter Milan - 7.00 LOST
Inter to draw with Barcelona - 3.10 WON
Floyd Mayweather to beat Marquez - 1.25 WON
Mayweather to stop Marquez in rounds 8, 9 or 10 - 21/26/26 LOST
Chelsea V Tottenham over 2.5 goals - 1.88 WON
Everton to beat Portsmouth - 2.00 WON
Saha to score first goal - 7.50 WON
Saha anytime - 3.00 WON
CSKA Moscow to beat Besiktas - 1.75 WON

Some very pleasing results in there, in particular the Louis Saha selection. I also predicted a Man Utd to win the derby game by a single goal but didnt include a price so I wont put that one up. Also a very near miss with Bordeaux at 7.00 as Buffon kept Juventus in that game.

Lets hope October continues in the same vein, I will take a look at Saturdays games tomorrow and post my advice then - I hope everyone has had a proftable September.