CSKA looks like a bank job

This weekend saw goals flying in everywhere Liverpool hit 6, Spurs hit 5 and Wigan even got 3 against Chelsea! Saturday's predicton at Fratton Park was spot on also, the 13/2 for Saha first goal was a great price and I hope a few people made so money from it. It was also my birthday this weekend hence the lack of activity on the blog, I am feeling a bit rough today but have a great tip for Wednesdays CL games which should cheer me up come Wednesday evening!!

Now the idea of this blog was to find 3-4 bets a month of which I would lump on and I believe I have found one, it involves the early kick off game in Russia on Wednesday and I would back CSKA Moscow to beat Besiktas - the price of 1.75 with William Hill is very fair and should be backed.

CSKA had a great record in the Uefa Cup last year at home winning all 5 matches at home whereas Besiktas have been very poor on their travels in Europe, culminating in a 8-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool in the group stages. Not many visiting teams will pick up anything when playing in Russia, its a very tough place to go and I expect CSKA to see off their Turkish opponents.

Remember to get on early, as its a 530pm kick off. On a sidenote I also like the look of Bordeuax at home to Maccabi Haifa but the price of 1.25 is too short and would be looking for something around 1.40 to get involved.

Portsmouth on the brink

Portsmouth are a team in freefall at the moment, 6 defeats on the bounce and this week they entertain Everton - a team who have just found their form scoring 11 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions. Louis Saha is also a man bang in form at the moment, his price of 13/2 for first goal with bet365 is a standout bet for me (2/1 to score anytime) obviously wait for the team news but I expect Saha to start.

I would advise a back of Everton to win at Evens and Saha first goalscorer at 13/2 (or anytime if you prefer to play it safe!) The law of averages would suggest that Portsmouth are due a win but I would rather go with the current form and Pompey look awful at the minute. The team are playing like a bunch of strangers and the striker Fredric Piquionne is absolutley woeful at best.

Elsewhere in England I like Scunthorpe at home to Doncaster, the price of 5/4 for a home win is generous and should be backed. Scunthorpe have a strung a few impressive perfomances together recently - a 4-0 thrashing of Palace away and beating playoff hopefuls Preston 3-1 at home. Doncaster have yet to win away from home and I expect them still to be searching after this weekends games.

Good Luck to all having a bet this weekend.

Bad news for the Willams Sisters

Weeks after wild card Kim Clijsters wins the US Open another tennis comeback beckons, this time in the shape of 5ft6 former world number 1 Justin Henin. Personally im delighted by this news although I doubt Venus and Serena will be so happy, I was only talking about Justin Henin last week and how much I missed her presence on the tour and all of a sudden a comeback is announced!

Maybe I should start talking about Ian Rush making a comeback! I guess he wont be so effective now age has caught up with him, on the other hand Justin Henin is in her prime - 27 years old (same age as myself!) and I fully expect her to climb back to the top of the rankings. A fitting tribute would be a victory at Wimbledon next year, the only grand slam which has eluded her.

Back to betting and I will take a closer look at saturdays game over the next few days, I have been reading various blogs on trading and it has really made me eager to return back to trading and I plan to do so at the start of next season. Although this season I plan to build a substantial bank for sports betting.

Could the beast from the east be VALUEv?

I have been looking at Novembers Heavyweight fight between Daivd Haye and Nikolai Valuev and was quite surprised to see challenger David Haye as such a big favourite 1.46 Vs 2.78 on offer for Valuev. After doing some homework on the 7ft 2 WBA Heavyweight Champion it appears that that Valuev could be there for taking, after a lacklustre title defence in his last fight against 46 year old Evander Holyfield (which went down as one of the worst decisions ever in heavyweight history!) it looks like Haye could be the man stop him.

There are two negatives for me against Haye though, one being that in the fight is being held in Nuremburg, Germany (Valuev's adopted homeland) it will be hard to imagine Haye winning this on points in Valuevs backyard. The second negative being that no one has ever knocked this guy out, Valuev may not be pleasing on the eye to watch but he is very effective and the shear size of this man means you just dont knock him out.

Thats why I was so surprised to see Haye as overwhelming favourite, I feel a back of Valuev now with potential to trade this off nearer the fight - as in my opinion Valuev's price will get shorter come fight time. Don't get me wrong, I would love Haye to win and knock this chump out but it proves to be a very tall order (excuse the pun).

Roll on November 7th and fight night!

The Run Continues!

Yesterdays Manchester derby was a thriller, what a game. Im glad my prediction's were spot on again with United winning by the odd goal and Chelsea Vs Tottenham over 2.5 goals but I have a feeling while I am not backing my selections with cash I feel the good run will continue.. As soon as I start putting some money down I feel my luck will change! A bit like playing with "Play Money" on the casino and when you deposit for real the winning streak ends!

Back to yesterdays game at Old Trafford and I feared for United as City looked capable of nicking the game after the first 45 minutes and then the second half was pretty much one way traffic in Uniteds favour. Ryan Giggs was awesome as well, he was every where and the pass for Owen's injury time (6 minutes deep) winner was sublime. It was the best game of the season so far without doubt!

I need to keep the same mindset for when I start betting again, as the last 7/8 posts on this blog has shown that I am capable of picking decent winners, I just have to believe and keep the confidence going. Im sure they will be losing runs but if i keep believing the winners will out weigh the losers thats for sure!

This week sees the Carling Cup return and I will avoid making any selections on these games, as its always a mine field with weakened teams. Im sure there will be other punting opportunities this week..

Goals Goals Goals

Chelsea Vs Tottenham is the game that interests me today, Tottenham have been scoring left right and centre and not to mention conceding a few goals too. Harry Redknapp has got a group of very attacking players which will always score goals and concede goals. Hence why the over 2.5 goals market is appealing in todays game at Stamford Bridge, every league game involving Spurs this seasons has had 3 or more goals and the odds of 1.88 on Betfair currently is very fair indeed.

Sometimes in a season there are a couple of teams that are worth backing over 2.5 goals when they play, Newcastle used to be one of these teams to follow, they played attacking football and were toilet at the back - always a recipe for goals! Chelsea always have goals in them, especially late goals at the moment! Drogba and Anelka are unstoppable on their day and Lampard will weigh in with 20+ goals a season.

In the other Derby game today in Manchester I fancy United to beat City by the odd goal, Adebayour is a huge miss for Manchester City and home advantage will be massive today and fully expect United to win.

Floyd Mayweather dominated again last night with a clear points victory (like a 1.25 shot should!), shame he couldnt stop him earlier but Marquez is a very tough man. On a personal note I was delighted to see Liverpool beat West Ham, Torres is some player although im not too happy with our defence at the minute and Carragher seems to be having a torrid time.. oh well another 3 points!

Mayweather to see off Mexican Rival

This weekend coming up sees a couple of "heavy-weight" clashes, Floyd Mayweather Jr takes on mexican Juan Manuel Marquez and I fully expect favourtie Mayweather to dismantle his mexican counterpart. Mayweather has come out of retirement to fight Marquez looking to maintain his unbeaten record, four years younger than Marquez I expect Mayweather to be fresher and stronger.

Marquez is stepping up to wealter weight for the first time and insists it is no problem, I feel it will be a bridge to far and Mayweather at 1.25(1/4) looks like a banker to me. Although those for Round betting I would back Mayweather to stop Marquez in Rounds 8, 9 or 10 on prices ranging from 20/1to 25/1.

The other heavyweight clash is at Old Trafford on Sunday when Manchester Utd host fierce rivals Manchester City, there is plenty of spice to this fixture since City signed Tevez and the comments coming out of City have riled United boss Ferguson.

It plans to be a tight game, I can see United edging it and giving City their first defeat of the season.I think it will depend on how much Tuesday's game in Besiktas took out of Utd whereas City have had all week to rest up for the game.

I will take a closer look at Saturdays game's and update the blog later with my thoughts.

A Day of Departures...

Yesterday was a strange day for many reasons, there was the big F1 news that Flavio Briatore has left Renault admist allegations of race fixing. Chelsea has also annouced that Peter Kenyon will be leaving his role as Chelsea chief executive at the end of October (personlly I can't stand this man, his arrogance is unreal) but the saddest news for me was to hear that Karen Brady will leave Birmingham if Carson Yeung completes his takeover of the club.

For some reason I have had a massive crush on Karen Brady for the last 10 years or so, maybe beacuse she was the first high profile woman to join a football club in such a capacity - who knows? But it I hope she comes back and joins another football club, I believe she has made a massive difference in putting Birmingham where they are today. I was also an avid reader of her column in the Sun newspaper on a Saturday.

Last nights prediction was spot on (Inter Vs Barca - draw) which I am very happy about, its quite rare I would back a draw to be honest but when I am not actually backing my selections with money I tend to see better results. Which leads me to think I should try and remove all emotion when betting and just back my selections and not get too caught up with the price and other factors which normally to persuade me to back the "safest" option.

I tried watch some of the Liverpool game online last night but it kept breaking up on me, a bit like Liverpools attacking play. Still a win is a win eh? Well done to Arsenal on a great comeback as well - I did fear the worst for Arsenal when 2-0 down after 5 mins!! I havent had time to look at Thursdays games yet... but Good Luck to all those that are having a bet!

Jose is back in the spotlight

Well last nights predictions on the French didnt come through all though Bordeaux played very well in Italy and it if wasnt for the heorics of Juve keeper Buffon the french side could have taken all 3 points. Elsewhere Marseille were disappointing, which proves that you can never write off AC Milan.

The 3 routine wins for Chelsea, Man Utd, Real Madrid all came off but a 10 year old could have predicted that!! Back in England and the 3 relegated teams Middlesboro, West Brom and  Newcastle are flying in the Championship with Boro and West Brom both winning 3-1 last night. I would love to see Newcastle back in the top flight with Shearer in charge.

Tonights CL games see Inter Vs Barcelona and Jose Mourinho taking centre stage again, current Champions Barcelona couldnt have been handed a tougher start (unless a trip to Anfield was on the cards!). I can't see Barcelona winning this one and they would take a draw, so a Lay of Barca would be a decent move or for those fixed odds betting I would suggest a draw. Jose Mourinho is a master tactian, probably the best around and he will not accept a defeat for his Italian champions.

Still no betting for myself, I have been reading a few like minded blogs taking advice from them, inparticular http://novicefootballtrader.blogspot.com/ and http://theartoftradingwar.blogspot.com/ have both been very good reads on football trading. Keep up the good work lads!

The French to shine in Champions League

Finally the Champions League is back, Tuesdays games should see routine wins for Chelsea, Man Utd and Real Madrid. It will be interesting to see how Real Madrid cope this season with all the pressure and media hype around them following their summer spending spree, I think they could take a while until they click into gear.

Looking closer at the fixtures and I fancy Marseille (at home) to edge out AC Milan in the first round of matches at 6/4. AC Milan havent looked great so far this season and will struggle to replace Kaka, also Gattuso is injured and he will be a big miss in centre of the park for Milan. Marseille will sense they can win this game and the first goal is crucial.

Over in Turin Juventus host French Champions Bordeaux, the vistors can be backed at 6/1 and could be worth a small bet. Bordeaux have made a flying start in the french league and Juventus could slip up here. Midfield playmakers Del Piero and Diego are missing for Tuesdays game, OK Juve have made a good start domestically but I still think Bordeaux are over priced here.

Back in the US and Del Porto stunned reigning champion Federer to win the US Open in 5 sets!! I was shocked to say the least, mens tennis is really strong at the moment with any 5 players capable of winning grand slams (Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic).

No bets for me still, but beware of the french!

US Open reaches Climax

The US Open reaches it's final few days and Roger Federer (the greatest player of all time, eclipsing Pete Sampras IMO) played one of the craziest shots I have seen. Actually I have seen Federer play this shot a few times but never has it looked so impressive and the result of this glourious shot gave him match point! Unreal, Djokovic knew what was coming and had the look of a defeated man. Federer will now face Argentian powerhouse Juan Martin Del Porto, Del Potro is a beast of a man and will give Fed a good game but the fact its his first grand slam final, I see him being a bit nervous and Federer should take the title 3-0 or 3-1.

Over to the womans Final last night and Kim Clijsters completed one of the most inspiring combacks in tennis, Clijsters was handed a wildcard to play in the US Open and saw her way past both Williams sisters and on to win the trophy. It looks like Kim is back and will prove to be stiff competition to the Williams sisters and the Russians which has threatned to take over the womens game, personally im glad as I have never been fond of the Williams sister and felt there was a gap to fill since Justine Henin retired (my personal fave, never has someone so small and fragile looking been so good at tennis!)

Back to Football and my hunch on Villa was right as they scored a late winner to overcome local rivals Birmingham - which was a good result for Villa and I really do fear for Birmingham they need a 15/20 goals a season striker. Fulham came from a goal down against Everton to win 2-1 which was pleasing as a Liverpool fan!! Also Damien Duff scored a cracker, I hope he has a good season as Duff has been unlucky with injuries over the last few years and has a cracking left foot. Im sure Roy Hodgson will get the best out of him.

Champions League is back this week and I will post my thoughts on Tuesdays game tomorrow.

An Eventful Saturday

Well I was right about Blackburn, was an easy 3-1 win for the home side. Mixed emotions really, glad I was right but not putting my money where my mouth is kinda hurts. Arsenal took a beating at Man City with former gooner Adebayour in all kinds of trouble, running the length of the pitch to celebrate his goal and then raking his studs over Van Persies head! I have never liked Adebayour, this just confirms it.

Over in the US Serena Williams gets a penalty point against her for abusing an offical! on match point as well, effectively gifting the semi final to Kim Clijsters! What a story that is, Clijsters would have been a huge price to win the US open.. she looks odds on now.

This coming week sees the return on the Champions League, which is always a great spectacle.. a few new teams (Ruben Kazan, FC Zurich, Debrecen) this year and I'm sure they will be a surprise result next week - hopefully not against my team Liverpool! I'm fairly happy after a Yossi Benayoun hat trick put Burnley to the sword yesterday - easy!

Nothing really stands out today, perhaps Villa at Birmingham today. I like Aston Villa away from home, they have lots of pace and great on the counter attack and Birmingham will struggle to score goals this year. The fact its a local derby puts me off, anything can happen in local derbies...

Disclosure Policy

Why have I decided to start this blog, well after many months of successful betting I seem to blow it all on one bad day when I go on "Tilt" and im thinking if I analyze my bets and start this blog it should enable me to keep discipline and it gives me something to look over and see where im going wrong and correct it.

I will give my thoughts and opinions on potential sports bets, ranging from football to cricket and golf. The plan is not to have small bets everyday or every other day but to pick 3/4 bets per month and bet a decent amount on each selection (£50-£100).

Taking a quick look at tomorrows games in the Premier League and my initial thoughts would be Blackburn to beat Wolves - decent price, 1.85 in places. Big Sam is no mug and knows a home game against a newly promotoed Wolves is where Blackburn should be picking up 3 points, also Wolves have a few injury problems.

Although im having no bets for a while im still going to share my thoughts on what I believe would be good bets, really tempted for a decent bet on Blackburn but its still early days in the Premier League and should wait a few weeks until the league has settled down...

DISCLOSURE POLICY
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