LUMP ON! a sports betting diary

Changing of the Guard

2010-05-06T11:05:00.000+02:00

The past few weeks has seen the changing of the guard somewhat with Inter beating Barca in the CL, Spurs finishing in the top four and Chelsea look set to reclaim the title from United. Out of all these the Inter Milan and Jose Mourinho saga interests me most from a betting point of view. Mourinho looks set to leave Inter Milan this summer with Real Madrid/Liverpool/Man City/Man United all mooted as possible destinations, for my money I would back Jose Mourinho to be at Real Madrid next season - in fact I would place wheelbarrows full of money on this if I could find a market somewhere!!

Skybet had a market up briefly and I regret not taking the Evens that was available for the Real Madrid manager at the start of next season to be Jose Mourinho. The rumour mill has been going crazy about Jose coming back to England in the summer. Personally I think that Jose would like to win a la liga title before coming back to England – he has stated before he wants to be the first manager to win titles in England, Italy and Spain, Real Madrid will more than likely continue their tradition of a new manager each year and dump Pelligrini in the summer paving the way for Jose, this looks nailed on to me.

I have searched high and low for a market somewhere but to no avail, I even emailed Betfair to see if they would put a market up but they responded they might add a “Mourinho to Stay” market up, which would be a forgone conclusion in my eyes – its not when he is leaving it’s the club!!

If anyone can find some prices, please let me know!

End of Season Break

2010-04-16T08:13:00.000+02:00

It feels like I have lost my way a little bit recently with the blog and betting as a whole, I have good days and then very bad days where I end up chasing losses until im betting on the very last game in South America - not a good sign. So I have decided to take a break from betting and the blog while I regroup and decide if its healthly for me to continue!

I still cant seem to shake off this chasing mentality, binge-betfair if you like! So im just going to sit and enjoy the last few games of the season and possibly be back for the World Cup.

What a week..

2010-04-06T07:47:00.000+02:00

What a massive week this is for sports fans across the world, Tiger Woods tees off in the Masters in what is his first tournament since his sex scandel broke five months ago and I would take Woods on at all prices. I would lay the hell out of him, the pressure and intense media coverage on Woods will be a massive distraction for him. I believe Woods will just be glad to get the Masters in one piece Lay at 5.7 on Betfair - no way can I have Woods as favourite after his break from the game and his mental state.

We also see the Quarter Final 2nd legs of the Champions League and Europa League, Arsenal tonight take on Barcelona at the Nou Camp for a place in the Semi's. I fancy Arsenal to cause an upset and nick a win here, Barca captain Puyol is suspended along with defensive partner Pique and throw in Ibrahimovic who is injured and Barca could struggle. OK, Arsenal have injuries of their own with Fabregas, Song, Arshavin and Gallas all out injured but Walcott could run riot here if given the freedom and can see Arsenal nicking it by the odd goal. Back Arsenal at 9.0 on Betfair - a huge price! Will Barca have one eye on the weekends clash with Real Madrid? Lets hope so, either way I expect Barcalona to struggle against Arsenal then I also fancy Real Madrid to beat them on Saturday.

Newcastle also confirmed their promotion to the Premier League last night with a 2-1 win over Sheff United, alot of praise should be given to the team and manager Chris Hughton but personally I believe that Chris Hughton is not the man to take them forward in the Premier League. I could have managed Newcastle in the Championship this season - thats how good their squad is in comparison to other teams. Hughtons failure to control the players has resulted in cliques forming in the dressing room, the recent episode of Andy Carrol brekaing Steven Taylors jaw just goes to show the player power at Newcaste - Hughton failed to make an example of Caroll as he as seen as a popular figure in the dressing room and Hughton didnt want to upset the players.

In short, today I want Lay Woods and Back Arsenal.

Good Luck

Should the Rich.... ?

2010-03-26T14:59:00.000+01:00

Is it just me or should the rich abstain from buying their beloved football club? First off we had Mike Ashley buying Newcastle United and watching them fall quicker than John Terrys trousers at a team mates house!. Along the way there was pictures of Chairman Mike Ashley sitting with the Newcastle fans in the crowd watching the games, OK Mike we get it - you’re a fan too! He then decided to sack Allardyce and appoint the messiah Kevin Keegan (again) which was to end in tears as Keegan walked out over a power battle within the club.

Now David Sullivan has finally “gone home” and bought West Ham United, I have a lot of respect for Mr Sullivan and the success he achieved previously at Birmingham – looking back it was a wonderful job he done there over the last 10 years or so but buying a club like West Ham which is so close to his heart he has given him an almost impossible job. How will he ever be satisfied at West Ham as his expectations will be so high as a fan which leads to enormous pressure and mistakes a la Mike Ashley. I hope David Sullivan and West Ham do succeed but it’s a huge task for him and his team.

The reason I wrote this piece was down to David Sullivans “open letter” to the West Ham fans (he sent a copy to all season ticket holders at West Ham yesterday). It made me cringe and I feel for Gianfranco Zola as how can he run a team when the chairman undermines you like this. Of course, Sullivan is only doing this because he is a fan. And that’s why you don’t buy the club!! You’re a fan and should enjoy being fan as becoming chairman takes away that pleasure away somewhat.

83% of Statistics are made up

2010-03-25T12:30:00.000+01:00

Well last nights result was a bit of a hammer blow, Leicester losing 2-1 in the last minute to Reading and looking back at my prediction I could have been guilty of only seeing one side of the argument. I tend to find when im making selections that I focus on the stats which favour my side of the argument and skim over the others. I even acknowledged the fact that Reading are in form yet I still opposed them, I think my own ego and stubbornness to be right is my downfall. Its only after the event I realize that I could have made a better judgement on the match based on the facts and form of both teams. Oh well, enough of the psychology lesson and back to football.

Chelsea walloped a sorry Portsmouth last night and it looks like David James is coming into some form for the World Cup!?! As I have mentioned before the state of Englands defence is a huge worry for me, Ashley Cole injured, Rio has back problems which has interrupted his season constantly, John Terry with all his personal problems and lack of form, Glen Johnson has only just come back from injury and all of the backups players lack top class experience.

Now Calamity James is back on the scene! His confidence must be shot to pieces as well playing for Portsmouth all season, shipping goals left right and centre. Does Fabio Capello stick by him or risk playing Joe Hart? Also the insipid recent performances of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard for their club sides just compounds my optimism for South Africa 2010, the one shining light is Wayne Rooney.. Could he win us the World Cup single handedly?

Leicester City Overpriced?

2010-03-24T09:57:00.001+01:00

I have been recently trialing for a tipster position with an asian handicap sports service, basically you provide them with tips and analysis over the course of a couple of months and if you have a 8% yield or higher on your tips then they will employ you as a paid tipster. Currently I have been doing this for 6 weeks and im around the 10% yield mark, so its going well so far but its much harder than I initially thought. Although one of the benefits is that its improved my discipline tenfold and even if I don’t hit the requirements at the end of the trial its been a very good learning curve for myself. The stipulations are that you choose one country for your selections and you can only use the odds provided by one certain asian handicap bookmaker, its been a challenge that’s for sure.

Apologies for the lack of updates on the blog recently but I have been finding it hard to get back into it, once you fall out of the routine its harder to get back in. Anyway as my title suggests I believe that Leicester are overpriced in this evenings league game against an inform Reading side. Odds of 2.26 (Betfair)are available on Leicester, which is very generous indeed. OK, Reading are one of the form teams in the division but they recently had 3 games in a row at home and have struggled to get results against the teams at the top.. (defeats to Sheff Utd, Blackpool and Forest). Reading are also nicely placed in mid table without much incentive to win, apart from keeping their run going but the playoffs are out of reach and they are safe from relegation. I would have Leicester at Evens to beat Reading tonight so that’s why im taking the 2.26 at Betfair.

Cheltenham has been and gone and I must say im licking my wounds a little bit after the carnage at Prestbury Park, I managed 3 winners during the week but luckily I was only playing with small stakes as I was unable to watch the racing due to work commitments.. Grrr but I did manage to watch the odds on Betfair fluctuate in running which kinda brings its own excitement!? Im not even gonna talk about Liverpool at the moment, im still seething from Sundays performance.

Good Luck to all having a bet this week.

All Work No Play

2010-03-08T12:50:00.001+01:00

I was disappointed to see Sunderland limp to another draw against Fulham as I was really confident of this selection but it wasn't to be. Still I will keep going and plugging away, the last 7-10 days has been crazy for me at work hence the lack of activity on here and betting wise. Hopefully my late nights at work are over for another month and I can concentrate to increasing my Betfair bank.

There is plenty of action to get stuck into this and I fancy goals in Ipswich Vs Cardiff game tomorrow, back over 2.5 goals at 2.18 on Betfair also I like the look of Arsenal to see off Porto in their second leg match. Although there has been some news about the availability of Fabregas missing the game due to injury so I would wait to hear either way on this before backing Arsenal.

Cheltenham is also on the horizon and I cannot wait! I almost feel like a kid at Christmas when Cheltenham arrives, although this year I will be stuck at work I will watch the re-runs of the races in evening and keep up-to-date with the BBC website. I got burnt already this year with backing Mille Chief for the Triumph hurdle only to see trainer Alan King withdraw him from the race after being found lame last week, arrrrgggh. The perils of Ante Post betting.

Good Luck All.

Sunday Special...

2010-02-25T20:40:00.001+01:00

As I was browsing the fixtures for this weekend I believe I have uncovered a gem of a bet! Ladies and Gentleman I propose that you take a wheelbarrow full of cash to the bookies and place it on Sunderland to beat Fulham on Sunday.

Heres why...

Sunderland face Fulham at the perfect time, Fulham are playing away in Ukraine tonight.
Sunderlands home form has been really solid - only losing 2 at home and beating Liverpool and Arsenal earlier this season.
Sunderlands injury situation has improved alot in recent weeks and this coupled with Fulhams midweek trip to Ukraine makes Sunderlands price too big to miss.
Fulham have only won once away all season in the Premier League.

Sunderland are available at odds of 2.26 right now on Betfair. Bet of the weekend for me!

Ok, dont get too carried away with the wheelbarrows of cash but im going to have a decent bet.

Good Luck to all those having a punt.

Recharged and Ready!

2010-02-22T20:45:00.001+01:00

Its been a few weeks since my last post as I have had the pleasure of a weeks break in Florida! A week in the Florida sun has defintely recharged my batteries and im ready to go again! It was interesting to be in Florida for the Tiger Woods press conference, you couldnt get away from it. Every local reporter and news channel covered the story and there was days of analysis and phone in's across America. Personally I feel it was a very bland and predictable statement from Tiger and the absence of wife Elin spoke louder than any words that "Brand Tiger" had scripted, I hope Tiger is able to concentrate on his golf very soon although I very much doubt that.

Back in England Liverpool have been limping along whilst neighbours Everton have battered Chelsea and Manchester United in recent weeks!! Still, we are still in the hunt for 4th place despite the shocking performance at Eastlands yesterday. This week sees loads of games to stuck into with full fixtures for Leagues One and Two and I really fancy Bournemouth to beat Barnet tomorow night odds of 1.74 are available on Betfair. Barnet do not travel well losing 11 of their 15 away games and Bournemouth will be looking to make amends for their defeat at Dagenham.

The Champions League is back as well, I saw the result Manchester Utd 3-2 AC Milan chalked up behind the bar in Florida and initally thought it was a good result for AC Milan as they got two away goals, it wasn't until I sobered up and looked at the paper the next day that I realised that the game was in Italy.Why do the americans write the away team first!!! Grrrrr!

Good Luck to all those having a bet.

Weekend Joy!

2010-02-08T14:09:00.001+01:00

What a great weekend for football!! Firstly Liverpool saw off Everton in what was an X-rated derby game, I was wincing through most of the first half challenges – one inparticular to Javier Mascherano from Pienaar. This tackle should have been a straight red, a leg breaker if ever I saw one but thankfully Masherano was able to carry on despite a crunched shinpad! It was a game low on quality but high on passion and grit as Liverpool held strong despite playing with 10 men for an hour of the game. I celebrated like we won the cup at the full time whistle, it was a massive win for Liverpool and I just hope they can keep the same intensity for the trip to Arsenal on Wednesday night.

Another joyous result was Millwall ending Norwichs unbeaten run of 16 league games to give us a nice winner at over 2/1! And the surprise of the weekend for me was seeing Man City humbled by Hull, I had underestimated Hull in this match as I expected a stroll for the Man City boys – oh well, still well up for the weekend and moving on this weeks fixtures.

Crystal Palace will serve us well again this week, they have been on fire since they announced administration proceedings. They face a Swansea team on Tuesday night who themselves are playing some good football but Paula Sousa’s comments about “Palace should have been relegated for going into administration” will provide the carrot which Warnock will dangle in front of his players before the game. As I have said before Warnock is a master of rallying the troops and Sousa should refrain from making such comments before you play the opposition!!

I like the look of Palace win (draw no bet) at 1.75 with bet365.com – or those feeling braver back Palace to win at 2.50.

Good Luck All.

All Good Things..

2010-02-06T09:45:00.002+01:00

This weekend I fancy 3 bets - first up is a bet in League 1 and it involves inform Norwich. Now Norwich have been on a hell of a run notching up 8 striaght victories and unbeaten in 16 league games! Today they travel to Millwall who themselves have been a good run winning the last 3 games without conceding and I fancy Millwall to end Norwichs run today, back Millwall at 3.05 on Betfair and have a saver on the draw to cover your stake. Millwall is always a tough place to play and Norwich still have main man Grant Holt out suspended.

The second bet is Manchester City to beat Hull at 1.80 on Betfair, Im not a fan of backing odds on away but City will have too much for a defensively poor Hull. Bellamy, Tevez and Adebayour will have a field day today and Hull will be playing the 3rd game in the space of 7 days. Another factor is that Hull put pretty much everything into holding leaders Chelsea 1-1 in midweek and City should benefit from that today.

I will post the third bet later as I will wait to hear some team for Sundays games, on a personal note I will be watching the Merseyside derby from the egde of my seat today - Everton have been finding some form lately :-/ It will be a tough game for Liverpool but I expect a 2-1 victory for the reds and have backed it at 15/2 on Bet365.com (stake is returned if it finishes 0-0 which is a nice bonus!)

Fulham to heap Misery on Pompey

2010-02-03T13:52:00.000+01:00

Its well known that Fulham are a team that I like to back when playing at home and I expect them to come out of the recent slump against a poor Portsmouth side, probably the worst team in the division. Fulham will have been buoyed by the deadline day triple signings they made - most notably Okaka from Roma. Whereas Portsmouth saw their best defender leave in Younes Kaboul heading back to White Hart Lane.

OK, Fulham have lost 5 games on the bounce but 4 of those games have been away with two of them against Spurs and Chelsea and their latest home defeat was against a counter attacking Aston Villa. There is nothing better for confidence then a home game against a recently weakened Portsmouth side! Fulham are currently priced up on Betfair at 1.89 and I suggest this is to be snapped up ASAP!! I would also have a small bet on the 2-0 scoreline at 8.8 on Betfair.

For those newbies to Betfair and betting check out my other blog The Betting Bonus King for some pretty sweet sign up bonuses and book reviews!

Come on Fulham!!

Nags and Niggles

2010-02-02T11:57:00.000+01:00

As I mentioned in one of my posts at the start of the year I had been approached by a new tipping service - Nags and Niggles. They are a husband and wife team who clearly love their horse racing, they started this service at the start of Jan and after a sluggish start I have been very impressed with thier recent form.

In total for Janaury they provided 115 tips of which 38 were winners and giving a ROI of 34% (based on Betfair SP). I would say that the bulk of selections are at the head of the market but they have tipped some very good priced horses recently including Tidal Bay (19.22) Jack Rackham (7.03) and Taffy Thomas (12.06) all based on Betfair SP and won last week!

They have endured losing runs of 6 or 7 horses but you will soon hit a run of winners which wipe out the earlier losses, betting with 100 level stakes WIN on each selection in January would see you with a profit of 4363 which is excellent.

Those on the look out for a tipster should take a look at Nags and Niggles - a great little service.

Super Sunday

2010-01-31T09:02:00.000+01:00

Yesterdays prediction was spot on with Palace running out easy winners 2-0 - I love it when opportunities like that arise. Its a reminder that there is always a decent bet around the corner, never bet for the sake of it as next week you will need your cash for the opportunities that are staring you in the face!

Today sees Arsenal host Manchester United in what could prove to be a cracker of a game, over recent years Ferguson and Wenger have shown lots of respect towards each other in the media as their enemies have now become Benitez, Mancini and previously Mourinho and Mark Hughes. Fergie has pleaded with his fans to lay off Wenger with the sick chants that Man Utd fans direct at him - which is a sign of growing respect between the two managers.

I suspect todays game to be very tight with neither team wanting to lose this game, I expect there to be a few goals after a tight 30 minutes or and would back a correct score of 2-2 at 14/1 (those who want to wait 30 mins and then back 2-2 on Betfair for a much bigger price). I also like the look of Fabregas first goal at 10/1 with bluesquare.com, Cesc has probably been the best midfielder in the league this year he has been carrying Arsenal like Gerrard used to for Liverpool (I say "used to" as Gerrard has been below par for the last 12 months).

Good Luck to all today and enjoy the game!

Warnock to Rally the Troops!

2010-01-30T09:18:00.000+01:00

This week saw Crystal Palace go into administration and face a ten point deduction dropping them to a place outside the relegation zone. Obviously a false position but yet Crystal Palace's match against bottom side Peterborough has been priced up as a relegation clash! Palace are 1.80 with most bookies to beat a poor Peterborough side who are winless away from home, this is a great bet and maximum bet is advised on Palace today.

Neil Warnock will use the fact they have gone to administration in their favour and create a siege mentally which will see Palace play out of their skins today - im sure of this. Palace should be 1.66 at best to see off Peterborough - get on now with bet365.com or 888sport. Infact Betfair is around 1.83/1.84.

Liverpool take on Owen Coyles Bolton this afternoon at Anfield as the reds need to put on a performance today and start finding the back of net. Rafa has been linked with Juventus as Ciro Ferrera got sacked yesterday and im sure rumours would intensify if Liverpool slip up again today.

Good Luck All.

Over Cooked

2010-01-28T11:09:00.002+01:00

Two words to be optimistic of Englands chances in the summer… Wayne Rooney. Rooney is the best form of his life right now, banging in 4 goals last weekend against Hull and then scoring the winner in seml final last night against rivals Man City (the second time this season City have been undone at Old Trafford in stoppage time). Man City’s chief executive Garry Cook had made a bold statement recently about City’s ambition to be in the biggest club in the world, Fergie must have been rubbing his hands at the timing of Cooks statement. I can’t help but feel that Cook wont be at City for too long, he reminds me of a naive Peter Kenyon and some of the comments he has been making have made me cringe.

West Ham were unlucky not to beat Portsmouth this week, which was disappointing to say the least as I was on course for a correct 1-0 result and away win until Pompey equalized with 14 minutes left. Still onwards and upwards, tonights see the semi finals of the African Nations cup and the bet for me tonight is Ghana to qualify at the expense of Nigeria. God knows how Nigeria have got so far playing the negative football they do, Yakubu is bad enough when played upfront with a partner but playing as a lone striker!? (cue Yakubu hat trick) On the other hand Ghana have a great young team and I expect them to have too much for Nigeria.

Good Luck All.

What If?

2010-01-25T14:00:00.000+01:00

I was shocked to see that Algeria had beaten tournament favorites Ivory Coast in the African Nations Cup, this result will have been a major positive for England as it highlights the danger of Algeria. Im sure Fabio Capello would have been watching this game closely and would have learnt a lot from it.

It’s been a case of “what if?” for me lately; I was looking at backing Martin Kaymer for the Golf and Ghana outright for the ACON before a ball was kicked (I was so impressed by the Ghana U20’s in the recent U20’s World Cup) but I backed neither. I think im too impatient for these kinds of bets, waiting 4 days for the golf to finish and a few weeks for the Ghana bet – I prefer to see an outcome the same day I need to learn to trust my instinct and apply more patience. I know 4 days isn’t a lot but its much longer than a 6f race at Kempton!
I like the look of West Ham to beat Portsmouth tomorrow, Portsmouth are in a mess and struggling to find a side to put together. I read they may only name 3 subs! I somehow doubt that but this news coupled with West Hams recent performance at Villa Park and the new takeover I expect more positive results for the hammers. Back West Ham 1-0 correct score at 9.4 and West Ham to win at a stonking 3.10 both on Betfair.

Its all about timing...

2010-01-22T08:24:00.001+01:00

It was one bet I didnt mind losing when backing both teams to score in the Liverpool V Spurs game on wednesday night! Liverpool played with passion and determination something the vistors lacked, Spurs were very average and inparticular Gareth Bale had a poor game. I am still waiting for Bale to actually produce something since his move to Tottenham a few years back, a very over rated player in my opinion - the fact Carragher beat him for pace summed it all up for Spurs.

I have been playing alot in the goals market recently with a great deal of success, I believe that these markets suit my style of inplay betting. I can read a match much better than I intially thought after predicting goals in the second half of the Mallorca Getafe cup game on wednesday (0-0 at HT 1-2 at FT) I lumped on over 1.5 and a bit 2.5 goals at half time and was duly rewarded with 3 second half goals, odds of 2.58 of over 1.5 was very generous and duly greened up after the first goal when odds dropped to 1.40.

And again in the Cameroon game last night, with the score at 0-1 to Tunisia I was expecting Cameroon to come out all guns balzing in a bid to qualify for the knockout stages. Both teams needed a positive result to qualify so end to end action was on the cards so a nice bet at 2.52 on over 2.5 goals at HT paid off when the the final score was 2-2. Of course hindsight is a wonderful thing when looking back on these bets but with the right research it makes these inplay markets a good source of winners, even 1 goal allows an opportunity to trade.

On a seperate note what application or gadget would anyone advise to upload screenshots onto blogspot?

Tweet Tweet

2010-01-20T09:03:00.000+01:00

Just a quick post to mention that I have signed up with Twitter - I decided that Twitter is a quicker way to express my reactions and thoughts on bets and events. I will still be blogging but also supplementing it by using twitter. I also get to follow a few others that I like including Tim Lovejoy, Ian Poulter, Davina McCall and Sara Cox!!

You can find me on http://twitter.com/lumponsports.

Happy Tweeting!

Half Empty of Hall Full?

2010-01-19T19:32:00.000+01:00

Liverpools season could take a huge step towards repairing itself tomorrow evening when they host Tottenham in which the winner will take a massive physcological boost in the race for 4th place. As a Liverpool fan I have been very depressed all season but looking at the table we are only 4 points from 4th place and this after playing so bad all season - it feels like we should be much further from 4th place so im remaining optimistic and hope Liverpool push on the second half of the season. A good bet for tomorrow nights game is both teams to score at 1.73 on Betfair.

On a personal note I have been making pleasing progress with my betting, over £200 in profit over the last 7 days but today I wiped out £170 in less an hour on horse racing - a stupid £20 loss in the first resulted in a chasing session which cleaned out my profits almost. Will I ever learn? If only I could practice what I preach!! arrgggh

I hope a few of you were on the Sergio Canales first goal at 13/2 on Sunday (thank god the first was an own goal!) It more than made up for the game finishing in a draw.

Good Luck All.

LUMP ON BET!

2010-01-17T16:05:00.000+01:00

Its been a while since I have posted but today I have a great bet in Spain for this afternoon.

Racing Santander to beat Valladoid at 1.99 on betfair, I make it a lump on bet for me as Santander are flying at the moment with 4 wins out of the last 5 including victory in seville last week. The visitors Valladoid have been in terrible form lately being thumped at home 4-0 to Athletico Madrid add together the low morale and missing players for todays game it makes Racing Santander a big bet for me.

Its just an hour to kick off so be quick! I also like the look for youngster Sergio Canales to score first at 13/2 on bet365 - the 18 year old striker for Santander scored a brace last weekend and has attracted the attention on the big boys in Spain.

Good Luck All.

Third Time Unlucky

2010-01-12T13:28:00.000+01:00

Well the 1 goal challenge lasted a grand total of 3 games before Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso had ruined the dream of becoming a millionaire through backing 1 goal or more. Although I lost 20 quid it was my pride that was more dented by only managing two winning bets before hitting a nil nil. With hindsight I should have given more thought to where the goals where going to come from, Burkina Faso were always gonna play for a 0-0, keep it tight and try a nick it late on and the emphasis was on Ivory Coast to break down their African counterparts.

No problem, I thought. Didier Drogba and co should bash a hatful past them but it wasn’t to be and the challenge ended over a miserable 3 games. Still lesson learnt and im going to stay away from International games, cannot be trusted as more often than not the minnows will put in a resolute performance and busting many banks in the process.

It’s not all boring 0-0’s in the African Nations Cup as hosts Angola drew 4-4 with Mali in an amazing first game, Angola were 4-0 up with 78 minutes with the draw at odds of 1000 on Betfair – cue Mali comeback.

I will be back with the 1goal challenge, after my wounds have healed.

To Score or Not to Score?

2010-01-08T08:28:00.000+01:00

That is the question! For a bit of fun I have decided to attempt the 1 goal or more challenge, I will start with a bank of 20 pounds and back 1 goal or more in selected games with my whole bank each time. Normally the odds vary from 1.05 to 1.15 and if I can hit around 50 winners in a row I will be looking to stop and bank the profits (although I will probably be tempted to bank some profits along the way!).

I have seen many attempts of this challenge on betfair forums and other blogs and it looks achievable giving good research and a bit of luck along the way. If I lose the 20 pounds after 3 bets then so be it! Hopefully it will help me improve my displine and Im always interested to try out other markets on Betfair.

I have stumbled across this website http://www.1goal.in/ which shows this can be done, with some users hitting 97 winners in a row before coming against a 0-0. It also provides you with a list of fixtures for the coming week and which leagues have the most goals scored - a handy little tool I shall be using. I will update my progress on the blog every few days so fingers crossed it rains goals for the next month or two!

Good Luck if you decide to take up this challenge also!

Can anyone advise what how to upload screenshots onto blogspot?? Thanks :-)

Onwards and Upwards

2010-01-06T13:22:00.000+01:00

I have recharged the batteries and over indulged during the Christmas break! I have also been pondering on how to approach my betting for 2010, I have been constantly battling the emotions of euphoria and depression when encountering winners and losers which subsequently results in adverse staking. I have become much better over the last few months since starting this blog and reading others who have the same patterns and behavior as myself. As of February I will be starting with a set bank and keeping track on this blog of my daily profits and losses which I hope will give me the final push into consistent profit making!

Also over the Christmas period I received an email from a new horse racing tipster called Nags and Niggles , it’s a husband and wife team who sent me a list of their results for the last 5 years (although not proofed, but I gave them the benefit of the doubt) and their strike rate is around 40% with the average price (SP) just over 2/1. You would have made 20k profit betting to 100 level stakes on each selection over the last five years which is a very decent return. They have started the service on 1st January 2010 and they are offering a free 7 day trial, its definitely worth a look and I will be reviewing the tips I receive over the next 3 months.

Not much football to go on this week with the weather playing havoc with the fixture list, so I will be back for the weekends action.

What a weekend!

2009-12-21T09:17:00.001+01:00

Its been a busy month for me personally so apologies for the lack of blog activity, what with Christmas coming up I have been busy with work and shopping. This will probably be my last post until the new year as I shall be back in the UK visiting friends and family and taking a couple of weeks break from it all.

This weekend was quite something for supporters of the supposed BIG FOUR! Liverpool limped to a 2-0 defeat at basement club Portsmouth, Fulham humbled champions Manchester United 3-0 and West Ham even managed to hold Chelsea to a 1-1 draw. It was a great weekend for Arsenal fans as they moved 5 points behind leaders Chelsea with a game in hand. Elsewhere Man City sacked Mark Hughes and immediately replacing him with Roberto Mancini who was in stands to City win 4-3 over Sunderland.

Last week also saw the draw for the Champions League and Europa League knockout stages. Liverpool got a very decent draw indeed facing Romanian outfit Unirea and following that they will face Lille or Fenerbache, both of which are beatable. Which should see them make smooth progress to the quarter finals and by then some bigger teams would have fallen such as Juve, Bremen, Valencia, Benfica, Marseille, Villareal and Wolfsburg.

So the bet for me is Liverpool on the outright market (13/2 with totesport) or Betfair at 7.4 with a view to lay some of it off at the quarter finals stage. Liverpool should be around 4/1 to win this competition after the draw was made so the 13/2 is very fair indeed. Liverpool seem to be in freefall currently but by February 2010 when the next Europa League matches are played I expect their form to have picked up and Gerrard, Torres and Aquilani to be firing on all cylinders - if Benitez is still there it remains to be seen? As I now believe his time is up but the squad is strong enough with or without Rafa to make the latter stages of the Europa League.

I hope you all have a good Christmas and see you in the new year.

Race to 4th Place

2009-12-16T13:39:00.000+01:00

We have an array of Premiership games to bet on this week and the fixture which stands out for me tonight is Tottenham Vs Man City. It should be a cracking game, end to end stuff as the 4th place hopefuls look for three points. I can’t believe that 4th place has such significance these days, its like winning the league for most clubs which is a sorry state of affairs but shows how much football has moved on with the influx of money and big business. Shankly would be turning in his grave to see Liverpool’s target this season is 4th place, which reminds that Liverpool dropped to 8th place last night after Birmingham won again last night! Oh dear..

Back to the game in hand and we all know that Spurs and City like to attack and I can see a few goals being shipped tonight, City drew 3-3 last time out at Bolton and you can forget Spurs 1-0 defeat at home to Wolves on Saturday as Wolves “parked the bus”. I expect Citys attacking play will create space and chances for the hosts so the bet is over 2.5 goals at 1.76 on Betfair currently. Those who want a bigger price wait 5/10 minutes and the price will be nearer evens but of course running the risk of an early goal.

I remember a few years back the Spurs/City 4-3 game where spurs were leading 3-0 at half time and went on to lose the game 4-3! Not sure what price was matched on City 3-0 down at half time but it must have been HUGE!

Mind over Matter...

2009-12-14T14:30:00.000+01:00

This weekend I was in two minds about what to back after the midweek failure on Barnsley to overcome Scunthorpe, an element of fear had entered my mind whilst looking at the games. When im on a good run there is a feeling of confidence and “invincibility” to a certain extent but the second a loser crops up it makes me take a step back and fear then creeps back into my selections.

I definitely believe that gambling and trading is 20% market knowledge and 80% mind control. To become successful you need remove emotion when placing bets and trades. The feeling of euphoria after winning bets can be just as bad as the feeling of disappoint when losing a bet, over-confidence can lead to bad judgments on staking and reading the markets incorrectly which will cause major damage to your bank. Whereas fear of losing will lead to hesitant and failure to spot a winning bet.

I have lost banks before which stemmed from over confidence and then chasing my losses, the classic boom and bust scenario. I then used to try and do as much research as possible on the markets and sports I was betting and then 6/12 months later I would lose it all again. It all boiled down to discipline and emotions. No matter how much you know or think you know about sports betting if you do not have discipline you will lose it all at some stage.

The key to it all is removing emotion from the situation and finding an edge Once you have an edge and can remove emotion from betting/trading you will have a key to the gold mine and consistent profits. I believe I have an edge I just need to train my mind so I can start making consistent profits month on month. This blog has been a great help for me, documenting my thoughts, ideas and bets has definitely improved my discipline I just need that final push which allows me to see opportunities without fear and over confidence. Although I feel it could be a while before that happens!

That Man and Robins.

2009-12-09T10:24:00.000+01:00

Tonights CL games are uninspiring from a betting point of view, it will be interesting to see Aquilani start his first game for Liverpool as I was beginning to believe that Aquilani wasn’t actually real! I appreciate that Rafa wants to protect him and games against Blackburn and Everton could have been bruising encounters but this is the Premier League for gods sake! Most of the teams are physical, it’s a tough league!

Last nights CL games threw up a couple of shocks with Bayern trouncing Juve 4-1 in Italy to knock out Juventus and send the German team through also an injury hit united side beat German champions Wolfsburg 3-1 (not sure if that’s a shock but it seemed like it after all the publicity about uniteds makeshift defence) with that man Michael Owen grabbing a hat-trick! Chelsea also got held at home 2-2 but the game was meaningless so im not reading too much into it – although Chelsea are now winless in 3 games in all competitions.

My bet tonight is Barnsley to beat Scunthorpe in The Championship, Barnsley are on a terrific run at the moment with confidence high. I believe Barnsley are now turning into a very tough team to beat under Mark Robins and can win games ugly as well as knock the ball about with some style. Scuthorpe really don’t travel well and I will be expecting a home win tonight, available at 1.83 with most bookies.

Good Luck All.

What a difference a week makes!

2009-12-06T18:00:00.000+01:00

The result yesterday evening was bitter sweet for me, after seeing Liverpool stutter to a point at Blackburn I was hoping Chelsea would take something from Man City as they are Liverpools direct rivals for 4th place this season but on the other hand I already backed City to win on Thursday at odds 2/1 (draw no bet). Even the winnings from that game couldnt really cheer me up as I was still mulling over the league table and the small matter of Arsenal next week!

What a difference a week has made to Mark Hughes and his City billionaires, I was listening to Martin Samuel talk about Citys run of 7 consecutive league draws and how the results after these draws would define that run - if City lost the next two games it would have been a huge blow for confidence (winless in 9 etc) BUT if City won their next two games it would have been unbeaten in 9 and all of a sudden things start to look rosey at Eastlands. The fact it was Arsenal (albeit a youthful Arsenal) and Chelsea that Manchester City beat this week also speaks volumes about how they can mix it with the bigboys so this has been the biggest week for Mark Hughes and I hope City stick with him.

I hope some of you were braver than me and did back City at 7/2, if not I hope at least some of you got the 2/1 on the draw no bet. This weeks sees the final round of CL games and some FA Cup replays and I will update my thoughts over the next few days.

City again anyone?

2009-12-03T18:14:00.000+01:00

It proved to be a good bet last night on Manchester City and I was pleased with the odds against price obtained from William Hill earlier in the week. As expected City’s experience and power proved too much for Arsenals young guns, there was even a war of words after the game between the two managers as Wenger didn’t shake hands with City boss Hughes. I guess that’s out of frustration on Wenger’s part as that’s now 3 defeats on the bounce now for Arsenal and with main front man Van Persie out for 5 months it could get worse before it gets better!

Going forward to this weekend’s games I really fancy Manchester City to get something out of the game against Chelsea. I have a sneaky feeling that Chelsea will slip up here, and the selection this weekend is Draw No Bet on Manchester City to beat Chelsea at odds of 2/1! For those feeling brave you can back City at 7/2 to win but I like the insurance of my stakes refunded if it’s a draw. Chelsea have looked unstoppable at times this season but have also thrown in a couple of dodgy away performances (losing 3-1 at Wigan and 2-1 at Villa) and City will be buoyed by last night’s result over Arsenal.

Good news for Liverpool this week with Torres been declared fit for Saturdays game at Ewood Park which will be very tough and could go either way, Blackburn have a good home record with only 1 defeat at home in the league, I hope its 2 come Saturday evening!

Good Luck All.

The Carling Cup

2009-12-01T11:15:00.000+01:00

I was tempted this weekend to back Fulham again after their victory midweek against Blackburn but I had a feeling that Bolton would be desperate to get back on track after 3 successive league defeats and was proved right after picking up a point at Fulham. So I just decided to sit back and watch the Merseyside derby this weekend and was thrilled to see Liverpool beat Everton, even though we rode our luck at times but in Pepe Reina Liverpool have a world class keeper and long may this type of performance continue.

Midweek sees the return of the Carling Cup and the fixture that interests me is the Man City Vs Arsenal game tomorrow night, the bet for me is Man City to win at 21/20 with William Hill. I was expecting 4/5 or 4/6 on City winning so odds against is a great price in my eyes. Arsene Wenger is very loyal to his youngsters in this competition whereas City will field a very strong team with experience. I strongly believe that City will have that bit extra to see off Arsenals youngsters and Mark Hughes will see this competition as a stepping stone for bigger things, if City are to break into the top 4 they need the experience and mentality of winning trophies and The Carling Cup could prove vital to Manchester City this season.

Good Luck All.

WANTED: Sports fans apply here!

2009-11-26T16:39:00.000+01:00

I am looking for football fans across the world who know there stuff! I want to expand this blog and offer advice and tips on other leagues, currently most of my tips are on English football as that’s my area but im looking for people with extensive knowledge of other European leagues. Not just the main leagues in Spain, Italy, France and Germany but even places like Romania, Bulgaria, Norway etc It can even be for Tennis, Cricket or Golf - whatever your niche is.

Initially I would like to have a guest blogger to write some pieces for me and offer some advice on their area of expertise, i.e. not many bookmakers would know that a Romanian team has half of its first team out with illness therefore offering a excellent value on the opposing team.

The aim is to build a network of contacts and share this type of information via a forum or chatroom on this blog.

If you feel you can add something to this or have a suggestion please leave a comment and I will get back to you.

Oh and just a quick mention to Fulham last night who made it a successful maximum bet for me last night, hope some others were on at a great price!! :)

Big Sam missing...

2009-11-25T11:27:00.000+01:00

Well Liverpool have finally done what they have been threatening for weeks now, crash out of the Champions League. Which im not that upset about as we are not realistic winners this season, the only worry I have about it all is the cash that Liverpool will now miss out on and the fact that most league games will be played on Sunday due to Europe League commitments on a Thursday. Which is a blow to be honest, no one likes playing catch up in the league especially when you are low on confidence. The plus side is that Liverpool could play Sparta Prague in the next round and I can get tickets, hurray!

I have been looking at tonight’s games have picked out a couple of decent bets, first off is the Premier League game between Fulham and Blackburn. Fulham are a standout 2.10 with most firms and this will be a maximum LUMP ON bet for me, I cannot understand why Fulham’s price is so big - it maybe that Blackburns form has picked up of late but a win at Bolton doesn’t excite me. Also Big Sam will be missing from the Blackburn dugout tonight as he recovers from heart surgery. Fulham are strong at home with the only defeats coming against Arsenal and Chelsea and should have enough to beat Blackburn and odds against is a great price.

The second of my two bets brings me to the Champions League and the early kick off in Russia, I fancy this game to be a draw. Fatigue might be setting for CSKA Moscow who are nearing the end of their domestic season, Wolfsburg will be tough opposition for the CSKA Moscow and I can see both sides cancelling each other out. Wolfsburg only need a point to guarantee qualification and im sure they will pick up that point tonight. Odds of 3.40 are decent for the draw and can be backed at Skybet.

Good Luck to all.

Simply The Best!

2009-11-23T10:06:00.000+01:00

Well, after looking at the weekend’s games I decided not to have a bet. After losing 4 in a row I felt it would be beneficial if I had a short break and regained some focus rather than chasing my losses. I actually had a few potential bets lined up (Liverpool/Man City both to score) I also fancied Leicester, Millwall, Rotherham and Notts County all to win this weekend. So there would have been 3 winning bets out of 5 (after timing at its best!) but I would have narrowed it down to just one or two selections so im not too bothered as the way things are going I would have backed Notts County and Millwall!

I spent most of yesterday watching old Chris Eubank fights on youtube, what a legend this guy was and the fight between him and Watson was awesome apart from the 11th round which almost proved fatal for Michael Watson. The contract signing between Benn and Eubank was also very amusing, it took place on Midweek Sports Extra I think? Barry Hearn, Benn and Eubank were all on the show and signed contracts live on air – you have gotta love the 90’s!

Anyway this week sees the return of the Champions League and a crucial game for my team Liverpool in Hungary, I will take a closer look at this weeks games and hope for a change in fortunes.

Good Luck All.

Down on my luck

2009-11-19T15:20:00.002+01:00

That’s four consecutive losers for me now, Rochdale, Ireland (draw), Ukraine and overs in Portugal/Bosnia and it’s the worst run I have been on this season. I think its gonna take some mental toughness to pick things up again and start seeing some winners. I am still in profit this season but that is down to a Louis Saha first goal at odds of 7.50, which makes me wonder how much longer I will be in profit for. Lets look at last nights games, Ukraine had several chances to take the lead against Greece and a wonder goal has done them – very frustrating! Overall Ukraine were the much better team but credit to Greece as they did defend resolutely and held on to make the World Cup Finals.

Ireland were robbed by a Thierry Henry handball, very, very harsh on Ireland but im still smarting over the Anelka goal in the first leg!! Portugal Vs Bosnia didn’t plan out how I expected, really thought goals were on the cards last night – Bosnia’s usual Gung Ho approach wasn’t shown over the two legs, perhaps with hindsight I should have anticipated a tighter game with so much at stake instead of jumping in over 2.5 goals!! It will be a welcome relief when the league fixtures return this weekend, the cup games and internationals have ruined my stride so to speak!

Good Luck All

Bonus, Bonus, Bonus!

2009-11-18T19:34:00.002+01:00

For those of you that are poker enthusiasts I guess you have heard the news about a 22 year old man winning a LADIES poker tournament, officials said that will not refuse entry to the tournament based on gender. The actual winner stated that he was not looking to enter a womans tournament but due to his schedule he could only play this tournament, infact the winner was not the only male to enter the tournament which beggers belief why call it a ladies tournament. I bet Catser Semenya would like these WSOP poker officials running the IAAF athletics board!! Still, the winner got paid his $9k odd winnings and off he went, personally if I was a woman competing in this tournament I would be a bit miffed about this whole situation.

I have never had big wins at poker as I find it takes me a long while just to grind out a few dollars profit and I think is it really worth it? Also you need to have a good memory of hands played and how your opponents acted in certain situations and I find myself easily distracted and not paying too much attention as to whats happening on the poker table! Infact as im writing this post im being distracted by the Ukraine Greece playoff.. Oh my goodness!! Shevchenko just missed two great chances in the opening 7 minutes - positive start from the Ukraine. Come on boys!!

Lets hope my next post will be celebrating the a victory for Ukraine, good luck all!

Red or Black?

2009-11-17T19:20:00.002+01:00

Whilst watching the football in the Czech casino on Saturday I was tempted to play a little roulette or video poker as there was tons of machines and tables but decided against it as I had been drinking and I always avoid gambling when under the influence of alcohol - it normally ends in tears! I have often had a football bet after a few beers and ticked the wrong box and marked an away win instead of home, I tended to blame the layout of the slips as opposed to the lager I had just been drinking!

Anyway back to the point in hand, I remembered back to good times I have had in casino's before when I have been in Canada. Its a great feeling when one of your numbers pops in the roulette and the rewards can be very high IF your on a run of good luck - LUCK is the single most important thing when playing roulette if your lucks in, its in! I tended to base my number selection around stuff Robbie Fowlers number 23 shirt when he started out at Liverpool and birthdays and stuff - it was fun and exciting especially when red 23 cropped up! The flipside is obviously the losses can accumulate just as quickly so I would never advise any compulsive gambler to try roulette or casino games but if played for fun and with sensible stakes they can be great entertainment.

One of those days...

2009-11-16T09:54:00.000+01:00

Predictions and selections, there is a fine line between making a prediction a selection and backing it with your own money. This weekend I had predicted that Russia would beat Slovenia, Portugal to beat Bosnia and Ukraine would draw with Greece 0-0 BUT I only backed Ireland to draw with France. I was very unlucky that in the 72nd minute Anelka had scored a deflected goal as it had looked like a draw up until that point, to be fair to France if anyone deserved to win it would have been them as Ireland offered very little in the way of attack.

I actually watched the playoff games in an underground Czech casino, where it was full of Ukrainians – rammed full of them! I was impressed with Ukraine and they should have won in Greece but as soon as the game finished 0-0 I had a feeling it was going to be one of those days for me. I was still pleased in a way about predicting these results just annoyed with myself at not putting my money where my mouth was.

Let’s hope I can put a stop to these two consecutive losers, which brings me to my next bet and following the game on Saturday I really fancy Ukraine to overcome Greece at home. Ukraine beat England at home most recently in the qualifying group, albeit with the help of a red card and a penalty but they still looked very useful and had several chances. Saturdays performance was also impressive against the Greeks, the only thing missing was a goal but cheered on by their fans on Wednesday night I expect Ukraine to beat Greece. Odds of 1.91 on Betfair are a steal, get on now!

I also fancy a goal fest in Bosnia on Wednesday night, this second leg is delicately poised and I expect it to be end to end stuff. Back over 2.5 goals on Betfair now at a staggering price of 2.12!!

Good Luck All.

The Luck of the Irish?

2009-11-13T22:08:00.000+01:00

This weekend sees the first legs of the World Cup Playoffs and the game im concentrating on is Ireland Vs France. It will be a very tight affair and the Irish will not fear the french one bit, Trappatoni has guided this irish team through qualifying group undeafeated with 4 wins and 6 draws and will face the French for a place in this summers World Cup. Ireland will fancy their chances over the two legs but I have a feeling that France will nick it (depsite having the handicap of Raymond Domenech as their manager!), Ireland often shoot themselves in the foot when it comes to the crunch.

For the purpose of this weekends game though im backing draw at 3.20 with Stan James, a great price! First legs are often tight gritty affairs and Ireland have proved already that they tend to draw alot of games with 6 out of the 10 games in qualifying draws. France will be also happy with a draw to take back for the 2nd leg so the odds of 3.20 at Stan James is good value. The other games I expect Russia to see off Slovenia and Portugal to beat Bosnia and a boring 0-0 between Greece and Ukraine, from a personal point of view I would love to see Ireland beat France just to see Michel Platini's reaction.

Backtracking to Wednesday night and the shocking performance from Rochdale against Luton in the FA Cup replay, apologies for those who followed my advice but if Rochdale would have converted one of the 50 million chances they had in the first half then we all would been laughing! Anyway onwards and upwards and lets hope for a tight tense draw in the Ireland V France game tomorrow!

Good Luck All!

Oh just to mention that David Beckhams LA Galaxy take on Houston I believe in MLS playoffs tonight and I will watching the game and will having a small 1-0 punt on the Galaxy.

Smicer takes charge of CZ

2009-11-11T10:11:00.000+01:00

This week saw Vladimer Smicer appointed as boss of the Czech Republic, which initially seemed like a bizarre decision to appoint Smicer as he has no managerial experience but Mark Hughes went straight into the Welsh job and performed really well so you never know. Smicer played around 90 odd times for his country so he knows what it means to represent your country and I hope (as an ex Liverpool player) he has some success managing the Czech Republic. The Czechs are in a bit of disarray at the moment as they failed to qualify for the World Cup and some senior players being caught in compromising situations!! (errrmmm Milan Baros). I’m sure Smicer will look to youth as he tries to build a team capable of reaching the next European Championships.

Tonight sees the FA Cup first round replay between Rochdale and Luton, the first game at Luton finished 3-3 and I believe you only get one chance of a shock and if Luton were gonna beat Rochdale they missed their chance on Saturday (Luton were 3-1 up until 87 mins when they conceded two late goals).

Now it may not have been much of shock to some people as there is only 1 division between them, but I fully expect Rochdale to beat Luton in tonights replay and leave Luton ruing those late goals on Saturday. Rochdale have been playing some great football this season and previously beat League Two leaders Bournemouth 4-0 away! Take the 1.70 available on Betfair for a home win.

Terry has the last laugh

2009-11-09T10:11:00.001+01:00

David Haye managed to see off the 7ft giant Valuev on Saturday night and became a heavyweight World Champion – a great performance. Although the fight wasn’t much of a spectacle due to Valuev’s statue-like performance it was still a night to remember for Haye. Haye had cleared wobbled Valuev in the 12th round as his speed and accuracy paid off.

The FA Cup saw a shock yesterday when Northwich beat League One Charlton unlike at Paulton Rovers on Saturday where Norwich put 7 past them!! It was a good result for Villa in the Premier League on Saturday, beating Bolton 5-1! So I hope the 1.88 that was available on Betfair before kickoff was snapped up as advised. It’s been a decent couple of weeks for myself and im very pleased about how things are progressing. I am being more selective and its paying off.

Chelsea were lucky to get a victory against Man Utd who deserved a draw at least, it was ironic that John Terry would score the winner after The News of The World has published a story about Terry’s dad dealing drugs! I saw the footage and read the article and it’s amazing that John Terry’s dad would do such a thing, im sure there will be a few chants about this next time Chelsea play away in the Premier League.

This coming weekend sees the World Cup playoffs take place and I will have a couple of selections for sure. On a sidenote Liverpool play Birmingham tonight and it will be interesting to see who is fit and if the fans start to get on Rafa’a back , I just hope we get a win and put in a good performance before the international break.

The Magic of the FA Cup

2009-11-06T18:48:00.000+01:00

Its been a busy week for me personally as I have just started a new job and have found little time to bet. This weekend sees the FA Cup 1st round take place with several minnows looking to cause an upset, the early kick off tomorrow sees Paulton Rovers entertain Norwich City - this game is a complete mismatch and I wouldnt put anyone off backing Norwich with a handicap of -1.5. Norwich boss Paul Lambert has already been quoted as saying he will play his strongest possible team so I expect a big victory for League One Norwich. I have decided against making this my selection and instead im looking to the Premier League for tomorrows bet.

Aston Villa will host Bolton Wanderers this saturday and I really like the look of a Villa win here, it can be backed on Betfair at odds of 1.88. Now Villa have been dropping a few points recently and will be looking to this game to get back on track, their opponents Bolton have a very poor defence and I believe they are the only team not to keep a clean sheet this season. I was expecting odds of around 1.70 for a home win and was amazed to see 1.88 so its worth a decent bet, its also worth mentioning that Villa have this fixture for the last two years 4-2 and 4-0 so they like playing Bolton at home!

Its an exciting weekend for sport as its been a long wait for the David Haye V Nicolay Valuev fight on saturday night, you can read my preview for this fight here. I hope some of you were on Valuev at 2.76 as he is now available at 2.26 on betfair. I just hope that the fight lives up to its billing, this weekend also sees another heavyweight clash when Chelsea entertain Manchester United so sit back and enjoy the sport this weekend!

Good Luck to all those having a punt on Villa tomorrow. :-)

Stat Attack

2009-11-02T18:45:00.000+01:00

Seeing as its a start of a new month I have been analysing my previous two months selections, I will start with the overall picture of all my football bets to date (including November's selection).

I have given 22 selections resulting in 12 winners (strike rate of 55%)
The average odds of the selections are 2.48 (6/4 in old money)
Prices have ranged from 1.50 to 7.50
Total profit based on £10 level stakes (£20 for max bets LUMP ON) is £87.60

Below is a monthly summary of September and October, no point adding November just yet!

September
Selections - 8
Winners - 6
Strike Rate - 75%
Average Odds - 3.45
Total Staked - £90
Total Returns - £198.30
Profit - £108.30

October
Selections - 13
Winners - 5
Strike Rate - 38%
Average Odds - 1.91
Total Staked - £150
Total Returns - £117.80
Loss - £32.20

I have a spreadsheet of all my bets if anyone wants to take a look, September was a great month and October would have been profitable if it wasn't for the MAX BET on Middlesboro failing at the weekend. I know there is room for improvement and certain bets with hindsight shouldnt have been placed (unders AND home win in the same game)

I hope this analysis isnt too confusing?! I am feeling confident about November after Sundays winning bet so lets hope the winners keep coming!

Cagliari to see off Atlanta

2009-11-01T12:07:00.000+01:00

Well before i mention yesterdays shocker im looking forward to Sundays games in Italy and Cagliari are available at 2.15 to see off Atlanta. My reasoning for backing a home win today is that Cagliari are finally starting to find some form (winning their last two games, 1-0 at Lazio previously) and Atlanta stuttered in their last away game at Livorno losing 1-0. Also a massive negative for Atlanta is the injury to star player Edgar Barreto received in midweek - he will be out for up to 3 months, he will be joining a growing injury list for Atlanta.

Odds of 2.15 are very decent on a home win here and should be backed, now back to yesterdays games and I will start with Middlesboro. I was really shocked to see them lose at home to struggling Plymouth, awful result. It just proves that any team can beat anyone on their day in The Championship - note taken! Now Bristol City cost me more money and im going to avoid them, a real bogey team for me. By all accounts Sheffield Wednesday should have won, even with the 5 players they had out with a virus!

Finally, Liverpool. Not much I can say there. Terrible result, more suspensions and I really fear we may miss out on 4th place - I just hope the board give Rafa time to turn it around and see where we are at the end of the season, it may be time to see Jose Mourinho step in during the summer? Who knows.

Good Luck to all having a bet today.

Betfair rules my life..

2009-10-31T00:22:00.000+01:00

Well the title of the thread has been true of the past few days, I have had a few spare quid and I have been playing around on betfair and managed to build up a nice little bank (many thanks to ajax conceding a late goal in cup, layed them at 1.16.. oh happy days). Though i must admit I had lost a bit previously laying any unquoted in the Inter Vs Palermo game when Inter went 2-0, so its been swings and roundabouts but I have been enjoying the UK horseracing also on betfair which is reminding me of home so that was nice, not to mention the profits! (special thanks to Yoshi and RP on betfair forum for a 21/1 winner today!).

Back to football this weekend and I fancy Bristol City (1.87 on betfair) to beat Sheff Wed, everything points to a home win here and the word is that Sheff Wed have been hit by the swine flu thats going round and a few academy players will be included in the squad to face Bristol City. Don't forget the Middlesboro bet also, I still have them as a massive favourite to beat struggling Plymouth - still available at 1.50 at most bookies.

Heres hoping to a winning day on Saturday, I will be out most of Saturday which will limit my Betfair time which is a good thing. The last few days have made me realise how addicting and easy it can be to sit and bet/trade all day on Betfair. Enjoy the weekend and the football, Good Luck All!

Gordon Strachan takes Boro Job

2009-10-27T07:45:00.001+01:00

Poor old Gareth Southgate was sacked recently as Middlesbrough boss, it was strange circumstances as they had just beaten Derby and were a point off the top of The Championship but attendances had fallen significantly as boro fans had seen enough of Southgates football and this ultimately cost him his job. Rumours of players unrest and some poor performances contributed, most notably a 5-0 thrashing at home by West Brom.

So Gordon Strachan is the man who has taken his place, a very lively charactor whose post match interviews are normally very entertaining to watch - I remember one in particular where Delgado went AWOL after an international game and Strachan refused to talk about it insisting had had more important matters like a yoghurt that went out of date!! Genius, here is some of his best interviews - courtsey of Soccer AM and you tube.

Back to the business in hand as Middlesboro take on Plymouth this saturday and I can't see anything else than a home win, Plymouth are probably the worst team in the league and odds of 1.53 with skybet make it a maximum LUMP ON bet for me this weekend, so get on early. Betfair had odds of 1.54 yesterday but have dropped to 1.50 - I expect it to be nearer 1.40-1.45 come kick off some trading to be made here. New managers coming in normally see an improvement in performances although Boro wouldnt have to improve much to see off strugglers Plymouth (who make a 700 mile round trip to The Riverside!).

Wanted to post this early so people can still get the decent price.

Yesssssssssss!

2009-10-26T08:28:00.000+01:00

What a day yesterday was, Liverpool outplaying Man Utd and beating them 2-0! It was a deserved victory as Liverpool played with a high tempo and attacking football, Yossi Benayoun and Fernando Torres particulary impressing - Jamie Carragher was fortunate to stay on as he was the last man when bringing down Michael Owen but this was the piece of luck Liverpool have been missing in recent weeks. Lets hope they kick on from here and string some results together.

It was also a good day for my bank balance as Villareal beat Malaga 2-1 making it two out of two for me this weekend. This week sees the return of the Carling Cup, I usually avoid betting on this cup as its a minefield of understrength teams but I will take a closer look at the games and see if there is any value.

More than likely I will be back betting at the weekend, Good Luck to all having a bet this week.

The Yellow Submarine

2009-10-24T18:02:00.000+02:00

For those that follow Spanish football will know the trouble that Villareal are currently in - "the yellow submarine" are rooted to the bottom of La Liga and face a Malaga team who are in freefall also. This will really be a basement battle but I expect Villareal to pick their first win of the season (1.70 with William Hill). Villareal were very unlucky in defeat against fellow strugglers Xerez last week having dominated the game and failing to take their chances. Its been the same old story all season, playing well but not taking chances but Sundays game at home to Malaga should be the perfect tonic for Villareal to break their duck.

Having seen the play-off draw for the World Cup taken place earlier this week one tie in particular stands for me - Portugal Vs Bosnia-Herzegovina GOALS, GOALS, GOALS was my intial reaction! Portugal have the genius that is Cristanio Ronaldo and Bosnia are so gung ho its unreal - a really good attacking team but awful at the back. So when this tie comes round (Nov 14/18 I believe) I would back over 2.5 goals in both matches OR back Portugal to be the highest scoring team in the Play-Offs for the World Cup at 3.75 with Boylesports.

It was really pleasing to see my selection come through today with Peterborough winning 3-0 against Scunthorpe at odds of 2.38 - I hope you all had a piece of this. I just hope im this happy tomorrow after the Liverpool Vs Man United game, it should be a great day of football with West Ham Vs Arsenal after the Liverpool game. Im nervously exicted about the game tomorrow and just hope we get our season back on track with a win against Man Utd, good luck all!

How to solve a problem like Liverpool

2009-10-23T08:01:00.000+02:00

Now I havent posted for a few days as I have been busy and trying to take my mind off football for a bit! This morning I was trying to work out what is going wrong at Liverpool and I believe it starts at the top, the problems with the board has had a negative effect on the financial side of the club - rafa has had to sell before he can buy.People will point to the £17m spent on Glen Johnson and £22m on Aquilani in the summer but Alonso and Keane were both sold recouping almost £50m. The two owners Gillett and Hicks have fallen out which is never positive for any business, the manager gets frustrated which then filters down to the players. Its the same situation at West Ham inregards to the uncertainty at the top of the club, there is no money available and all of this effects the staff of the club.

The flip side are teams like Sunderland, Man City and Chelsea - these have been backed with cash, the board back the manager and are financially stable with funds to invest in the playing squad. All of this has a postive impact on the club and the results are being shown on the pitch, the quicker Gillett and Hicks are out of Anfield and new owner is in place who has Liverpools best intentions at heart (and not to mention cash!) the better for everyone connected with the club. Its they way football in this current day age is going, you need cash to compete at the top level.

Secondly the injury crisis is very bad indeed, I know some people will see this as an excuse but it just proves the first point I made about cash as Liverpool need to invest in the squad as the fringe players are not good enough. Liverpool have had Gerrard, Torres, Aquilani, Agger and Johnson all injured recently thats over 120m/130m worth of talent at least! Any club will miss those calibre of players so its gonna effect the results and the confidence of the team which was evident in the game against Lyon and this is all before I mention a certain beach ball!!!

When these players start coming back from injury results will improve and confidence will get higher so fans should back the club and back the manager when they need it most and look at the bigger picture. The problems at board level need to sorted and quick, Gillett and Hicks out and a new owner must be found who can back the manager with the funds to build and improve the squad.

Anyway rant over and this weekend im backing Peterborough to beat Scunthorpe at home (2.38 with skybet). Scunthorpe seem to up their game against the big teams and seem to struggle when facing teams at the bottom (2-1 defeat to Plymouth) and i fear that their last two performances have taken alot out of them. Peterborough have been playing well but not getting the results (ignore the leat performance against Doncaster).

Good Luck All.

I must be crazy

2009-10-20T07:55:00.000+02:00

Well I have two tips for tonights games and both are based on "gut-feeling", normally I will back up my selections with stats and solid reasons why I think a team will win but the first tip tonight it hards to find any stats apart from the law of averages! Ipswich Town, now Ipswich havent won a game all season (P12 W0 D6 L6) and face Watford at home tonight in the Championship but I have been feeling a home win for the last couple days (odds of 2.20 is available with most bookmakers). Ipswich should be mid table at least and I believe its just a matter of time before the team gels and starts winning games, and tonights home match under the floodlights with a good home support should see that first win!

The second game is Liverpool V Lyon in the Champions League, Liverpool have been on a 3 game losing streak but tonight sees the return of captain Steve Gerrard which is a massive boost. Its a must win for the home side and the price 1.83 is a good bet, European nights are always a bit special at Anfield and this coupled with Gerrards return should see a dramatic improvement in the quality of Liverpools play. I will be watching the game with extra nerves now!

Sundays result in La Liga was pleasing seing Espanyol beat Tenerife 2-1 at odds of 1.94, although the unders bet didnt come in and with hindsight I should have just backed Espanyol and left the goals market alone (1-0 or 2-0 would have been the only result which would have given both winning bets) but we live and learn.. Also Fulham strolled to a 2-0 win over fellow strugglers Hull so all in all its been a decent weekend, lets hope the home support plays a part in tonights games!

Good Luck All.

Reaction & La Liga

2009-10-18T09:23:00.000+02:00

Two words today, Steve Bruce. I hate the guy, he always seems to get one over Liverpool - when he was a player at Man Utd, manager at Birmingham and now his Sunderland team beat us. Fair play to them, they did deserve to win as Liverpool were very poor and Bruce is building a very good team at Sunderland Jones and Bent are a great strike force and for that Bruce does have my respect but i hate playing his teams!!

Seeing Peterborough make it 1-1 in injury time also hurt yesterday but looking at the game a draw was a fair result so im not grumbling too much. Still got Fulham to look forward tomorrow and im very confident that Fulham will win with ease on Monday but I have found another bet today in Spain. I watched Real Madrid beat Valladoid 4-2 and I was amazed at how poor they are at the back but going forward they are awesome - Higuian scored a belter of a goal (he is now my fave Madrid player).

Todays game that caught my attention is Espanyol V Tenerife - 1.94 for a home win on betfair is a good bet. Tenerife have lost all 3 away games without scoring this season and I expect a fully fit Espanyol squad (Raul Tamudo is left out due to disciplinary issues) to beat Tenerife, another interesting stat is that Espanyol have won the last 5 of their home fixtures against Tenerife (OK, this stat does date back a few years but still a good pointer). I would also advise backing under 2.5 goals at 1.86 as both teams have struggled in front of goal this year, Espanyol have scored 5 goals in 6 games and Tenerife have scored 3 goals in 6 games!!

So just to recap, Back Espanyol against Tenerife 1.94 and Under 2.5 goals 1.86 both on Betfair.

Good Luck All.

Advice for the weekend

2009-10-16T09:35:00.000+02:00

I have studied the games carefully this weekend and have found two very decent bets indeed, the first game takes place in The Championship - Bristol City Vs Peterborough. The odds of 1.86 on betfair for a home win is a great price, Bristol City are a team who are very strong at home (P5 W4 D1 L0) this season and I expect them to have too much for a recently promoted Peterborough side. Peterborough are a young side on a 3 game losing streak and they are finding life tough in this division, I believe they will stay up come May but their home form will be the key.

The second game I like is Fulham Vs Hull in the Premiership, this game is on Monday so we have a few days to place the bet but the odds of 1.70 with Paddy Power for a Fulham win must be taken. Fulham are a very good team, better than their current league position suggests and everyone knows about Hulls problems. I believe that Phil Brown is on borrowed time, ever since the half time team talk he gave on the pitch at Eastlands I opinion of him has dropped greatly (not to mention the singing after the game at the end of last season, eeek!) I will be looking to oppose Hull for most of the season, especially away from home.

On a personal note im not looking forward to Liverpools trip to Sunderland, its always a struggle after the international break and playing away at Sunderland is no easy task and I fear that a rested Darren Bent will pose our back line problems. Lets hope Torres and Gerrard are fit and ready otherwise there could be problems!

Good Luck to all having a bet.

And the World Cup Winner is...

2009-10-14T19:02:00.000+02:00

I have been looking at the odds for the outright winner on the World Cup market and there are 3 teams I am going to concentrate on. First up for win purposes only is Brazil.

Brazil
Brazil are always the first team that comes to mind when a World Cup is on the horizon, they have looked very impressive during qualiying and manager Dunga has instilled a work ethic into the current side which may have been lacking previously. Brazil are my clear favourties to win in South Africa. I would advise backing them at 5/1 available at most bookmakers.

Russia
Guus Hiddinks men face a play off to qualify for South Africa but being one of the seeds in the draw I would expect them to overcome any opponent so the odds on offer of 40/1 represent value, Guus Hiddink dragged South Korea to the semi finals of the World Cup and it wouldnt surprise me to see Russia there at the business end of the tournament. Russia's captain Arshavin is a great player, probably one of the best creative attacking players in Europe. Back E/W at 40/1 or back on betfair and trade later on in the tournament.

Ghana
Ghana are a very strong team and have a few premiership players most notably Michel Essien, they qualifed with two games remaining and in my mind are the strongest of the African teams. The only problem I see with Ghana is the lack of depth in the squad which could count against them if they reach the tail end of the tournament but odds of 80/1 are very good indeed. Back them each way or a view to trade later in the tournament. I can see the locals supporting Ghana once South Africa are knocked out and that support could prove vital.

All prices quoted are with Skybet.

Looking forward to Haye/Valuev fight

2009-10-13T17:03:00.000+02:00

I have just seen the David Haye press conference and some of the quotes are great! Its one of the most entertaining parts of boxing, all the build up and all the trash talking and no one is better than David Haye "I've never been a big fan of the matted hair in my face. The size I am, I sort of come up to his chest and apparently the word around the campfire is that he doesn't smell too sweet. Hopefully he runs a cold tap over himself or someone hoses him down outside before he comes in." Brilliant!!

These quotes had me in stitches, the press conference at the end shows David Haye smashing the head off a giant cardboard cutout off Valuev. Reminds me of Rocky IV with Apollo Creed and Ivan Drago, classic! I can't wait for November 7th in what promises to be one of the most eagerly awaited fights of the year, lets hope Haye does Britain proud. Check out my advice previously on Haye Vs Valuev

Back to football and I will have a couple of picks for this weekends games in The Championship and League One, I will also share my ante post views on the World Cup in the next few days.

Back to winning ways!

2009-10-12T09:04:00.000+02:00

Well I was very happy to see Japan win 2-0 on Saturday as I had been very vocal about this bet, come kick off time I was very nervous and all kinds of different thoughts were going through my head! Japan did dominate the game but credit to the Scots for holding out for so long.

Another pleasing result was Finland beating Wales 2-1 at odds of 1.92 so two good wins this weekend sees the bank increase and I hope several of you made some cash too! Its always a risk when betting on International Friendlies but I had such a strong belief about the Japan game it was too good to miss! And the price on Finland was too big, should have been 1.70-ish.

I will check out the midweek games but more than likely I will be looking at the coming weekend games. Oh by the way the Eastenders Mark Fowler lookalike in the picture is not me!

Wheelbarrow ALERT!!

2009-10-07T19:25:00.000+02:00

Just a quick post as no doubt many of you have noticed about the number of withdrawls Scotland have had from their friendly game in Japan this weekend - losing captain Darren Fletcher is a massive blow not to mention the other 9 players that have withdrawn from the squad!!!

Scotland will travel to Japan facing a tough task anyway but after all of these withdrawals I have decided to get the wheelbarrow out and LUMP ON Japan to beat Scotland this Saturday at 1.75 with Totesport.

Scotlands XI that will line up on Saturday in Japan will be of a very poor standard and I fully expect Japan to beat them in their own country.

Two posts in one day!! But snap up the 1.75 while you can...

LUMP ON!!

World Cup Weekend

2009-10-07T11:25:00.000+02:00

This coming weekend sees the latest round of European Qualifers for the 2010 World Cup, with Englands place already secured the pressure is off Fabio's Capello men as they line up in the Ukraine seeking a ninth straight victory in qualifying. My attention for betting purposes is drawn elsewhere in Europe, it focuses on the 3pm kick off in Finland. I really like the odds of 1.92 for Finland to beat Wales at home, the game itself is a dead rubber but I was expecting the price to be nearer 1.72 so at these odds Finland need to be backed.

Finland beat Wales 2-0 in the reverse fixture with the Welsh looking very shaky at the back, keeper Wayne Hennessy kept the welsh team in it at times and I expect the Finns to heap more misery on this young welsh team. The only concern was that Finland failed to beat whipping boys Liechtenstein last time out (drawing 1-1 away) hence im not going overboard on this one.

After my comment's recently about Czech football being very poor I was expecting the Czech Republic to be a decent price at home to Poland in their crucial WC qualifer but the odds of 1.60 with Betfair is a little tight for me, I would want to back them at 1.72 or higher. It will be a very tight game and one best avoided from a betting perspective.

Elsewhere back home in England I have a potential bet lined up in League Two this weekend but will wait until Thursday/Friday before deciding if its a selection or not. Just a quick comment also on the fact that the England game is internet only, shocking!! £11.99 to watch it on match day is a joke, I wouldn't pay that with the bookies money let alone mine!

Good Luck all!

Miserable Monday

2009-10-05T08:32:00.000+02:00

Well it was one of those weekends for predictions, Oldham had 3 clear chances against Yeovil but failed to take any and drew 0-0. Burnley beat Birmingham 2-1 but I decided against them and to top it all off yesterday Liverpool lose 2-0 with Drogba creating both goals and failing to score himself!! Overall it was very disappointing although im not too down heartened, Oldham done enough to win and not backing Burnley was a rational decision so im still quite pleased in a way.

I believe that Liverpool should have got a point yesterday but I guess im biased huh! Benitez got his team wrong yesterday, Benayoun should have started instead of Riera - as benny is a man in great form and should have started and Carragher's lack of pace is catching up with him for sure. I also fear that we may ruin Ryan Babel, he should play up top with Torres as a centre forward ideally - Ryan is a footballer that needs confidence to thrive and would hope he gets a run of games soon out on the wing supporting Torres at least. It looks like Benitez's style of man management is not suited to Ryan Babel and if I was Arsene Wenger I would get the cheque book out and sign Babel - I can just see him suiting Arsenals style of play, I just hope he does get a run in the team at Anfield at some point. One positive from yesterday was Insua's performance, a great left back in the making - big, strong and quick.

International break is coming up, I hate these breaks from the Premier League especially after a defeat to one of your rivals. I normally try avoid the newspapers and media after a defeat but I have a few sports podcasts to listen too so im going to brave them today! Another thing I have learnt recently is to oppose Czech teams when playing in Europe, having just moved to Prague recently I have noticed that Czech football is a very poor standard indeed - so im going to check out Sparta/Slavia fixtures in the Europe League for any "wheelbarrow" opportunities.

Weekends Preview

2009-10-02T11:39:00.000+02:00

This weekend sees Chelsea Vs Liverpool which should be a cracker of a game, I think Cech being suspended is a big miss for Chelsea and Liverpool will be looking to bounce back after their defeat midweek in the Champions League. I expect there to be a few goals and Didier Drogba is a man who always comes good against Liverpool and I make him a selection to score anytime at 2.88 with Corals (15/8). I will settle for Liverpool to win 4-1 with Drogba grabbing a late consolation!! I will be watching the game on Sunday very nervously as I do all Liverpool matches.

Back to saturdays games and my intial thoughts was Burnley at home to beat Birmingham at 2.40 (with expekt.com) is a cracking price! They have won all 3 home games in the league against Man Utd, Everton and Sunderland which is a very decent start at home BUT now they are expected to beat Birmingham. Previously they have been the underdogs and im not sure how they will cope with being favourites in this game - so I have decided against making Burnley a selection this weekend but will be watching the game closely for future reference as Burnley at home will be very profitable this season.

Looking further down the leagues I have spotted a very decent bet in League One, Oldham to beat Yeovil at home 1.83 is available with most bookmakers. Oldham are on a good run at the moment winning 3 on the bounce - most notably MK Dons last time out and I fully expect them to turn over Yeovil (winless away from home). Yeovil will make a near 500 mile round trip to Oldham and back on coach and I believe the journey will also be a factor in Oldhams favour.

Good Luck to all those having a bet this weekend.

September's Summary

2009-10-01T09:10:00.000+02:00

Well last night was pleasing, CSKA duly obliged with the first LUMP ON! bet advised by beating Besiktas 2-1 and looking back at the month it has been very profitable with the advice given.

Blackburn to beat Wolves - 1.85 WON
Marseille to beat AC Milan - 2.50 LOST
Bordeaux to beat Inter Milan - 7.00 LOST
Inter to draw with Barcelona - 3.10 WON
Floyd Mayweather to beat Marquez - 1.25 WON
Mayweather to stop Marquez in rounds 8, 9 or 10 - 21/26/26 LOST
Chelsea V Tottenham over 2.5 goals - 1.88 WON
Everton to beat Portsmouth - 2.00 WON
Saha to score first goal - 7.50 WON
Saha anytime - 3.00 WON
CSKA Moscow to beat Besiktas - 1.75 WON

Some very pleasing results in there, in particular the Louis Saha selection. I also predicted a Man Utd to win the derby game by a single goal but didnt include a price so I wont put that one up. Also a very near miss with Bordeaux at 7.00 as Buffon kept Juventus in that game.

Lets hope October continues in the same vein, I will take a look at Saturdays games tomorrow and post my advice then - I hope everyone has had a proftable September.

CSKA looks like a bank job

2009-09-29T09:21:00.000+02:00

This weekend saw goals flying in everywhere Liverpool hit 6, Spurs hit 5 and Wigan even got 3 against Chelsea! Saturday's predicton at Fratton Park was spot on also, the 13/2 for Saha first goal was a great price and I hope a few people made so money from it. It was also my birthday this weekend hence the lack of activity on the blog, I am feeling a bit rough today but have a great tip for Wednesdays CL games which should cheer me up come Wednesday evening!!

Now the idea of this blog was to find 3-4 bets a month of which I would lump on and I believe I have found one, it involves the early kick off game in Russia on Wednesday and I would back CSKA Moscow to beat Besiktas - the price of 1.75 with William Hill is very fair and should be backed.

CSKA had a great record in the Uefa Cup last year at home winning all 5 matches at home whereas Besiktas have been very poor on their travels in Europe, culminating in a 8-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool in the group stages. Not many visiting teams will pick up anything when playing in Russia, its a very tough place to go and I expect CSKA to see off their Turkish opponents.

Remember to get on early, as its a 530pm kick off. On a sidenote I also like the look of Bordeuax at home to Maccabi Haifa but the price of 1.25 is too short and would be looking for something around 1.40 to get involved.

Portsmouth on the brink

2009-09-25T11:40:00.000+02:00

Portsmouth are a team in freefall at the moment, 6 defeats on the bounce and this week they entertain Everton - a team who have just found their form scoring 11 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions. Louis Saha is also a man bang in form at the moment, his price of 13/2 for first goal with bet365 is a standout bet for me (2/1 to score anytime) obviously wait for the team news but I expect Saha to start.

I would advise a back of Everton to win at Evens and Saha first goalscorer at 13/2 (or anytime if you prefer to play it safe!) The law of averages would suggest that Portsmouth are due a win but I would rather go with the current form and Pompey look awful at the minute. The team are playing like a bunch of strangers and the striker Fredric Piquionne is absolutley woeful at best.

Elsewhere in England I like Scunthorpe at home to Doncaster, the price of 5/4 for a home win is generous and should be backed. Scunthorpe have a strung a few impressive perfomances together recently - a 4-0 thrashing of Palace away and beating playoff hopefuls Preston 3-1 at home. Doncaster have yet to win away from home and I expect them still to be searching after this weekends games.

Good Luck to all having a bet this weekend.

Bad news for the Willams Sisters

2009-09-24T08:21:00.000+02:00

Weeks after wild card Kim Clijsters wins the US Open another tennis comeback beckons, this time in the shape of 5ft6 former world number 1 Justin Henin. Personally im delighted by this news although I doubt Venus and Serena will be so happy, I was only talking about Justin Henin last week and how much I missed her presence on the tour and all of a sudden a comeback is announced!

Maybe I should start talking about Ian Rush making a comeback! I guess he wont be so effective now age has caught up with him, on the other hand Justin Henin is in her prime - 27 years old (same age as myself!) and I fully expect her to climb back to the top of the rankings. A fitting tribute would be a victory at Wimbledon next year, the only grand slam which has eluded her.

Back to betting and I will take a closer look at saturdays game over the next few days, I have been reading various blogs on trading and it has really made me eager to return back to trading and I plan to do so at the start of next season. Although this season I plan to build a substantial bank for sports betting.

Could the beast from the east be VALUEv?

2009-09-22T08:34:00.000+02:00

I have been looking at Novembers Heavyweight fight between Daivd Haye and Nikolai Valuev and was quite surprised to see challenger David Haye as such a big favourite 1.46 Vs 2.78 on offer for Valuev. After doing some homework on the 7ft 2 WBA Heavyweight Champion it appears that that Valuev could be there for taking, after a lacklustre title defence in his last fight against 46 year old Evander Holyfield (which went down as one of the worst decisions ever in heavyweight history!) it looks like Haye could be the man stop him.

There are two negatives for me against Haye though, one being that in the fight is being held in Nuremburg, Germany (Valuev's adopted homeland) it will be hard to imagine Haye winning this on points in Valuevs backyard. The second negative being that no one has ever knocked this guy out, Valuev may not be pleasing on the eye to watch but he is very effective and the shear size of this man means you just dont knock him out.

Thats why I was so surprised to see Haye as overwhelming favourite, I feel a back of Valuev now with potential to trade this off nearer the fight - as in my opinion Valuev's price will get shorter come fight time. Don't get me wrong, I would love Haye to win and knock this chump out but it proves to be a very tall order (excuse the pun).

Roll on November 7th and fight night!

The Run Continues!

2009-09-21T08:05:00.000+02:00

Yesterdays Manchester derby was a thriller, what a game. Im glad my prediction's were spot on again with United winning by the odd goal and Chelsea Vs Tottenham over 2.5 goals but I have a feeling while I am not backing my selections with cash I feel the good run will continue.. As soon as I start putting some money down I feel my luck will change! A bit like playing with "Play Money" on the casino and when you deposit for real the winning streak ends!

Back to yesterdays game at Old Trafford and I feared for United as City looked capable of nicking the game after the first 45 minutes and then the second half was pretty much one way traffic in Uniteds favour. Ryan Giggs was awesome as well, he was every where and the pass for Owen's injury time (6 minutes deep) winner was sublime. It was the best game of the season so far without doubt!

I need to keep the same mindset for when I start betting again, as the last 7/8 posts on this blog has shown that I am capable of picking decent winners, I just have to believe and keep the confidence going. Im sure they will be losing runs but if i keep believing the winners will out weigh the losers thats for sure!

This week sees the Carling Cup return and I will avoid making any selections on these games, as its always a mine field with weakened teams. Im sure there will be other punting opportunities this week..

Goals Goals Goals

2009-09-20T09:51:00.000+02:00

Chelsea Vs Tottenham is the game that interests me today, Tottenham have been scoring left right and centre and not to mention conceding a few goals too. Harry Redknapp has got a group of very attacking players which will always score goals and concede goals. Hence why the over 2.5 goals market is appealing in todays game at Stamford Bridge, every league game involving Spurs this seasons has had 3 or more goals and the odds of 1.88 on Betfair currently is very fair indeed.

Sometimes in a season there are a couple of teams that are worth backing over 2.5 goals when they play, Newcastle used to be one of these teams to follow, they played attacking football and were toilet at the back - always a recipe for goals! Chelsea always have goals in them, especially late goals at the moment! Drogba and Anelka are unstoppable on their day and Lampard will weigh in with 20+ goals a season.

In the other Derby game today in Manchester I fancy United to beat City by the odd goal, Adebayour is a huge miss for Manchester City and home advantage will be massive today and fully expect United to win.

Floyd Mayweather dominated again last night with a clear points victory (like a 1.25 shot should!), shame he couldnt stop him earlier but Marquez is a very tough man. On a personal note I was delighted to see Liverpool beat West Ham, Torres is some player although im not too happy with our defence at the minute and Carragher seems to be having a torrid time.. oh well another 3 points!

Mayweather to see off Mexican Rival

2009-09-18T07:57:00.000+02:00

This weekend coming up sees a couple of "heavy-weight" clashes, Floyd Mayweather Jr takes on mexican Juan Manuel Marquez and I fully expect favourtie Mayweather to dismantle his mexican counterpart. Mayweather has come out of retirement to fight Marquez looking to maintain his unbeaten record, four years younger than Marquez I expect Mayweather to be fresher and stronger.

Marquez is stepping up to wealter weight for the first time and insists it is no problem, I feel it will be a bridge to far and Mayweather at 1.25(1/4) looks like a banker to me. Although those for Round betting I would back Mayweather to stop Marquez in Rounds 8, 9 or 10 on prices ranging from 20/1to 25/1.

The other heavyweight clash is at Old Trafford on Sunday when Manchester Utd host fierce rivals Manchester City, there is plenty of spice to this fixture since City signed Tevez and the comments coming out of City have riled United boss Ferguson.

It plans to be a tight game, I can see United edging it and giving City their first defeat of the season.I think it will depend on how much Tuesday's game in Besiktas took out of Utd whereas City have had all week to rest up for the game.

I will take a closer look at Saturdays game's and update the blog later with my thoughts.

A Day of Departures...

2009-09-17T08:04:00.000+02:00

Yesterday was a strange day for many reasons, there was the big F1 news that Flavio Briatore has left Renault admist allegations of race fixing. Chelsea has also annouced that Peter Kenyon will be leaving his role as Chelsea chief executive at the end of October (personlly I can't stand this man, his arrogance is unreal) but the saddest news for me was to hear that Karen Brady will leave Birmingham if Carson Yeung completes his takeover of the club.

For some reason I have had a massive crush on Karen Brady for the last 10 years or so, maybe beacuse she was the first high profile woman to join a football club in such a capacity - who knows? But it I hope she comes back and joins another football club, I believe she has made a massive difference in putting Birmingham where they are today. I was also an avid reader of her column in the Sun newspaper on a Saturday.

Last nights prediction was spot on (Inter Vs Barca - draw) which I am very happy about, its quite rare I would back a draw to be honest but when I am not actually backing my selections with money I tend to see better results. Which leads me to think I should try and remove all emotion when betting and just back my selections and not get too caught up with the price and other factors which normally to persuade me to back the "safest" option.

I tried watch some of the Liverpool game online last night but it kept breaking up on me, a bit like Liverpools attacking play. Still a win is a win eh? Well done to Arsenal on a great comeback as well - I did fear the worst for Arsenal when 2-0 down after 5 mins!! I havent had time to look at Thursdays games yet... but Good Luck to all those that are having a bet!

Jose is back in the spotlight

2009-09-16T07:30:00.000+02:00

Well last nights predictions on the French didnt come through all though Bordeaux played very well in Italy and it if wasnt for the heorics of Juve keeper Buffon the french side could have taken all 3 points. Elsewhere Marseille were disappointing, which proves that you can never write off AC Milan.

The 3 routine wins for Chelsea, Man Utd, Real Madrid all came off but a 10 year old could have predicted that!! Back in England and the 3 relegated teams Middlesboro, West Brom and Newcastle are flying in the Championship with Boro and West Brom both winning 3-1 last night. I would love to see Newcastle back in the top flight with Shearer in charge.

Tonights CL games see Inter Vs Barcelona and Jose Mourinho taking centre stage again, current Champions Barcelona couldnt have been handed a tougher start (unless a trip to Anfield was on the cards!). I can't see Barcelona winning this one and they would take a draw, so a Lay of Barca would be a decent move or for those fixed odds betting I would suggest a draw. Jose Mourinho is a master tactian, probably the best around and he will not accept a defeat for his Italian champions.

Still no betting for myself, I have been reading a few like minded blogs taking advice from them, inparticular http://novicefootballtrader.blogspot.com/ and http://theartoftradingwar.blogspot.com/ have both been very good reads on football trading. Keep up the good work lads!

The French to shine in Champions League

2009-09-15T07:53:00.000+02:00

Finally the Champions League is back, Tuesdays games should see routine wins for Chelsea, Man Utd and Real Madrid. It will be interesting to see how Real Madrid cope this season with all the pressure and media hype around them following their summer spending spree, I think they could take a while until they click into gear.

Looking closer at the fixtures and I fancy Marseille (at home) to edge out AC Milan in the first round of matches at 6/4. AC Milan havent looked great so far this season and will struggle to replace Kaka, also Gattuso is injured and he will be a big miss in centre of the park for Milan. Marseille will sense they can win this game and the first goal is crucial.

Over in Turin Juventus host French Champions Bordeaux, the vistors can be backed at 6/1 and could be worth a small bet. Bordeaux have made a flying start in the french league and Juventus could slip up here. Midfield playmakers Del Piero and Diego are missing for Tuesdays game, OK Juve have made a good start domestically but I still think Bordeaux are over priced here.

Back in the US and Del Porto stunned reigning champion Federer to win the US Open in 5 sets!! I was shocked to say the least, mens tennis is really strong at the moment with any 5 players capable of winning grand slams (Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic).

No bets for me still, but beware of the french!

US Open reaches Climax

2009-09-14T07:51:00.000+02:00

The US Open reaches it's final few days and Roger Federer (the greatest player of all time, eclipsing Pete Sampras IMO) played one of the craziest shots I have seen. Actually I have seen Federer play this shot a few times but never has it looked so impressive and the result of this glourious shot gave him match point! Unreal, Djokovic knew what was coming and had the look of a defeated man. Federer will now face Argentian powerhouse Juan Martin Del Porto, Del Potro is a beast of a man and will give Fed a good game but the fact its his first grand slam final, I see him being a bit nervous and Federer should take the title 3-0 or 3-1.

Over to the womans Final last night and Kim Clijsters completed one of the most inspiring combacks in tennis, Clijsters was handed a wildcard to play in the US Open and saw her way past both Williams sisters and on to win the trophy. It looks like Kim is back and will prove to be stiff competition to the Williams sisters and the Russians which has threatned to take over the womens game, personally im glad as I have never been fond of the Williams sister and felt there was a gap to fill since Justine Henin retired (my personal fave, never has someone so small and fragile looking been so good at tennis!)

Back to Football and my hunch on Villa was right as they scored a late winner to overcome local rivals Birmingham - which was a good result for Villa and I really do fear for Birmingham they need a 15/20 goals a season striker. Fulham came from a goal down against Everton to win 2-1 which was pleasing as a Liverpool fan!! Also Damien Duff scored a cracker, I hope he has a good season as Duff has been unlucky with injuries over the last few years and has a cracking left foot. Im sure Roy Hodgson will get the best out of him.

Champions League is back this week and I will post my thoughts on Tuesdays game tomorrow.

An Eventful Saturday

2009-09-13T08:35:00.000+02:00

Well I was right about Blackburn, was an easy 3-1 win for the home side. Mixed emotions really, glad I was right but not putting my money where my mouth is kinda hurts. Arsenal took a beating at Man City with former gooner Adebayour in all kinds of trouble, running the length of the pitch to celebrate his goal and then raking his studs over Van Persies head! I have never liked Adebayour, this just confirms it.

Over in the US Serena Williams gets a penalty point against her for abusing an offical! on match point as well, effectively gifting the semi final to Kim Clijsters! What a story that is, Clijsters would have been a huge price to win the US open.. she looks odds on now.

This coming week sees the return on the Champions League, which is always a great spectacle.. a few new teams (Ruben Kazan, FC Zurich, Debrecen) this year and I'm sure they will be a surprise result next week - hopefully not against my team Liverpool! I'm fairly happy after a Yossi Benayoun hat trick put Burnley to the sword yesterday - easy!

Nothing really stands out today, perhaps Villa at Birmingham today. I like Aston Villa away from home, they have lots of pace and great on the counter attack and Birmingham will struggle to score goals this year. The fact its a local derby puts me off, anything can happen in local derbies...

Disclosure Policy

2009-09-11T18:27:00.002+02:00

Why have I decided to start this blog, well after many months of successful betting I seem to blow it all on one bad day when I go on "Tilt" and im thinking if I analyze my bets and start this blog it should enable me to keep discipline and it gives me something to look over and see where im going wrong and correct it.

I will give my thoughts and opinions on potential sports bets, ranging from football to cricket and golf. The plan is not to have small bets everyday or every other day but to pick 3/4 bets per month and bet a decent amount on each selection (£50-£100).

Taking a quick look at tomorrows games in the Premier League and my initial thoughts would be Blackburn to beat Wolves - decent price, 1.85 in places. Big Sam is no mug and knows a home game against a newly promotoed Wolves is where Blackburn should be picking up 3 points, also Wolves have a few injury problems.

Although im having no bets for a while im still going to share my thoughts on what I believe would be good bets, really tempted for a decent bet on Blackburn but its still early days in the Premier League and should wait a few weeks until the league has settled down...

DISCLOSURE POLICY
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